Why has the price of ginger recently been in chaos, and can it rise in the future market?
Original title: Analyst: Ginger changes season, quality differences lead to price “chaos”
According to a report by China Rural Voice's "Agriculture, Rural Areas and Farmers in China", some time ago, ginger prices rose significantly. Therefore, rumors have recently circulated in society that after “Suan Ni Hen” (garlic you ruthless), “Jiang Ni Jun” (ginger you army) is also about to make a comeback. However, as soon as the rumor emerged, several media outlets immediately refuted it, saying that the rise in ginger prices was only due to a temporary shortage of supply.
That's right. Right now is exactly the period when new and old yellow ginger alternate, and ginger is in short supply between harvests, so supply is limited, and prices will naturally rise. Recently, our reporters visited major agricultural product markets across the country and found that ginger prices have already begun to slowly fall back. But the reporters also found that the ginger market has recently seen new changes, which can be described in one word: “chaos”. What exactly is going on?
November is exactly the season for fresh ginger to be put into storage. At the Diaozhen vegetable wholesale market in Zhangqiu City, reporters saw that compared with the high-price trend in early November, ginger prices on the market have now begun to fall back. Vegetable wholesaler Liu Tao:
Liu Tao: Prices are now falling back, but the decline is not very large, because this period is exactly when new ginger is about to be shipped. If new ginger is shipped, our prices will be a bit cheaper, and the overall price will fall back by three or four mao.
Reporters saw that the ginger sold on the market now is basically last year's old yellow ginger, but the prices vary unevenly. The cheaper washed ginger is about 2.5 yuan, while the slightly more expensive kind can reach 4 yuan. Zhuo Chuang analyst Zhang Min said that the ginger market is now a bit chaotic, and one reason is that the quality of old yellow ginger is uneven.
Zhang Min: The reason prices are relatively chaotic is that the supply on the market now includes both new goods and old goods. New ginger has not yet officially entered the market, and old goods are also fewer. In addition, after all, it has been stored for a year, so quality is also uneven, which is why there are all kinds of prices. And the price gap between good goods and poor goods is also relatively large.
Zhang Min told reporters that the recent “chaos” in ginger prices is also related to sellers' supply psychology. During the special period when old and new yellow ginger alternate, because old yellow ginger stocks are becoming fewer and fewer, sellers are becoming more and more cautious about shipping goods. Everyone is waiting to observe prices and shipping goods according to demand, and this situation has also caused ginger prices to fluctuate slightly, sometimes rising and sometimes falling.
Zhang Min: In early November, fresh ginger in Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong in the north had already been centrally harvested. During this period, fresh ginger cannot yet be sold. Ordinary farmers have to wait about 40 days before fresh ginger can come onto the market. During this period there is a gap in the market, and old yellow ginger still dominates. But at this time, on the one hand, ordinary farmers have already put new ginger into cellars, and they are no longer in a hurry to store new goods everywhere, so their mindset about shipping goods is also relatively calm: if the price is good, I will sell; if the price is not good, I am not anxious either. So when the market has a certain demand, prices depend on today's market demand. If demand is greater, prices are a bit lower; if demand is smaller, prices rise slightly.
Uneven quality and unstable supply and demand have led to irregular changes in ginger prices recently. Reporters learned that apart from price changes being somewhat “chaotic”, during this year's period of alternating old and new yellow ginger, the new ginger markets in the north and south also differed. Now, the northern ginger market is relatively normal, and sellers are selling ginger at the going price. But some sellers in the south, because market conditions are hard to meet expectations, have appeared to hoard goods and be reluctant to sell.
In addition, this year, due to weather reasons, the output of fresh ginger in various places in the north and south has also shown different changes. Some regions increased production, while some regions reduced production, and the unpredictable changes in output have also left many market wholesalers unable to make sense of the future trend of ginger. Wholesaler Liu Tao:
Liu Tao: Prices may still fall a bit later, but there is no way to say for sure about this ginger, because some production areas reduced output while some instead increased output. I estimate that this year's ginger will not differ much from last year's.
Reporters learned that because ginger in different production areas has shown different changes of increased or reduced output, recently some people on the market have been stirring up the “ginger output reduction theory”, believing that weather changes will affect national ginger output and lead to price changes. In response, analyst Zhang Min denied this.
Zhang Min: Ginger is centrally marketed around Frost's Descent. This year, looking comprehensively at the main production area Shandong, as well as the Northeast and southern regions, after the Chinese New Year in 2016, rainfall in the south was relatively frequent. In addition, rainfall in July and August was also relatively frequent. So before this year's new ginger came onto the market, there were theories of output reduction on the market. These statements: the weather aspect did indeed affect output in some production areas, but the impact in most production areas was not very large.
Zhang Min analyzed that later, fresh ginger will gradually come onto the market, while old yellow ginger will also gradually withdraw from the market. By then, market transactions will complete the transition from old goods to new goods, and prices may gradually become clearer.
Zhang Min: In view of the high purchase price of fresh ginger in October this year, cold storage operators and growers have relatively high expectations for the opening price of new yellow ginger. In addition, since the beginning of the 2016-2017 season, storers are not yet in a hurry to dump goods. Therefore, Zhuo Chuang predicts that if there are no significant changes in demand in domestic and foreign markets before the Spring Festival, then the price of new yellow ginger in Shandong production areas may fluctuate slightly and adjust on the basis of this opening price, without major waves.
Overall, this year's ginger returns will be better than last year's, and this situation has also led to high enthusiasm among growers for planting ginger. In response, analyst Zhang Min reminds everyone not to blindly expand planting.
Zhang Min: As a seasoning, the market demand for ginger is, after all, relatively limited. Under the main background that supply and demand affect prices, it is suggested that the vast number of growers, who are the main suppliers in the ginger market, should, by promptly understanding market supply information and price changes in recent years, reasonably arrange planting and shipping plans for each period, so as to ensure their own returns to the greatest extent possible.