How much is glutinous rice per jin, and how are farmers' planting returns?
Over the past two years, the glutinous rice market has been completely different from hybrid rice and conventional japonica rice, with its market price remaining relatively stable. This year glutinous rice has entered the full harvest period. What is the current market situation? What changes are showing in farmers' planting returns?
Harvests differ between northern and southern production areas
In recent years, due to the development of the yellow rice wine brewing industry, pastry and food health products industries, market demand for glutinous rice has risen year by year, and the domestic glutinous rice planting area has therefore continued to expand.
Glutinous rice planting in our province is mainly concentrated in Huaiyuan, Fengtai, Shouxian, Huoqiu along the Huai River and Wangjiang, Zongyang, Susong, Wuhu and other counties and cities along the Yangtze River. Cui Beikui of Zhonghuang Village, Feihe Township, Huaiyuan County planted 100 mu of glutinous rice this year. “I started harvesting glutinous rice on the 11th of this month. From the current situation, the average yield of glutinous rice is 1,500 jin (wet rice, moisture content 30%), an increase of more than 50 jin over last year.”
But glutinous rice growers in the areas along the Yangtze River in our province, which were affected by floods in early July, were not so lucky. Yang Shanfa of Zhanghu Town, Wangjiang County had all 200 mu of glutinous rice affected by the disaster, with a final yield of only 800 jin (wet rice, moisture content 30%), a reduction of 700 jin from last year. Xu Pingdao, deputy general manager of Jinmai Group of Pujiwei Farm in Tongling City, introduced that the flood in early July submerged part of the farm's glutinous rice fields, and the continuous rain in late September also caused large-scale sprouting on the panicle and lodging of more than 30,000 mu of early-maturing glutinous rice, leading to a decline in the quality of early-maturing glutinous rice. Judging from the early-maturing glutinous rice already harvested, the average yield is 1,000 jin, a reduction of more than 30% compared with normal years. If there is no major abnormality in the weather later, 50,000 mu of late-maturing glutinous rice may maintain a normal yield level.
Wu Pengling, president of the Grain Association of Jinshe Township, Zongyang County, told reporters that this year the township's glutinous rice planting area is 28,000 mu, accounting for more than 90% of the township's cultivated land area. The entire Zongyang County has more than 1 million mu of cultivated land, of which glutinous rice planting area is about 800,000 mu. Due to the abnormal climate, all glutinous rice fields in the polder area of Jinshe Township were flooded. Only 6,000—7,000 mu of early-maturing glutinous rice had a harvest, with an average yield of 1,400—1,500 jin (wet rice, moisture content 20—25%), a slight reduction from last year. Huaiyuan County is also one of the main glutinous rice production areas in our province. This year the county's glutinous rice planting area reached 830,000 mu, an expansion of 30,000 mu over last year, with an average yield of 550 kg per mu (standard rice), basically flat with last year.
Farmers' returns vary widely
Xu Pingdao told reporters that at this time last year, the market purchase price of glutinous rice was 1.6 yuan/jin (dried rice), while this year it rose to 1.9 yuan/jin. In Jinshe Township, Zongyang County, the market purchase price of glutinous rice also rose to 1.6 yuan/jin (wet rice), more than 0.4 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year.
Similar to the glutinous rice market situation in the areas along the Yangtze River, Cui Beikui told reporters that the market purchase price of wet glutinous rice in Huaiyuan County is about 1.4—1.5 yuan/jin, and the market purchase price of dried rice is about 1.8 yuan/jin, more than 0.2 yuan/jin higher than last year. In the Wuwei market, the market purchase price of new-season glutinous rice is 171-176 yuan per hundred jin, with a moisture requirement within 14%. Most of the grain sources are high-moisture grain, with relatively high moisture, requiring timely drying and conditioning. In Shucheng County, in October the market purchase price of glutinous rice still remained at 1.7 yuan/jin (standard rice), but after entering November, the market purchase price of glutinous rice quickly climbed to 1.85 yuan/jin (standard rice), an increase of 0.25 yuan/jin over the same period last year.
Although the glutinous rice market outlook is positive, the gap in farmers' planting returns has widened. Cui Beikui did the accounts: planting glutinous rice this year requires input costs of 79.2 yuan/mu for seeds; 170 yuan/mu for fertilizer; 100 yuan/mu for pesticides; 80 yuan/mu for weeding; 120 yuan/mu for agricultural machinery; 80 yuan/mu for labor; and 500 yuan/mu for land transfer, totaling 1,130 yuan/mu in input. Calculated at a yield of 1,500 jin (wet rice) and a market selling price of 1.4 yuan/jin, the output value per mu is 2,100 yuan. After deducting all expenses, the gross income per mu is 970 yuan. Compared with last year, income per mu increased by about 90 yuan.
But the planting returns of rice farmers in the areas along the Yangtze River are not optimistic. “I worked in vain this year.” Yang Shanfa told reporters that he invested about 1,100 yuan per mu in planting glutinous rice. Calculated at a yield of 800 jin and a selling price of 1.25 yuan/jin, the output value per mu is 1,000 yuan. Not counting his own labor input and machinery wear and tear, the loss per mu is more than 100 yuan. Xu Pingdao told reporters that even if the glutinous rice price rises, local farmers' income per mu fell by 30%, and planting returns also declined by more than 500 yuan/mu.
Glutinous rice market looks strong in the short term
“Because downstream buyers generally expected a reduction in glutinous rice supply from the Anhui production area this year, merchants all went to the production area in advance to stock up.” Xu Pingdao believes that under such market expectations, the purchase price of glutinous rice was quickly pushed up in the early period, but it may not last too long. As buyers finish purchasing, the glutinous rice price may fall back slightly, and it is expected to be difficult for the glutinous rice price to climb further before the Spring Festival. Xiang Kesuo, head of Nangang Rice Industry in Shucheng County, analyzed that market participants were generally optimistic about this year's glutinous rice market in the early period, and a large amount of social capital entered the glutinous rice purchasing field, causing the glutinous rice market to keep heating up. At present, the purchasing peak is nearing its end, and it is estimated that the glutinous rice market will remain relatively stable before the New Year, with no major fluctuations.