Pig price market analysis November 23, 2016
National pig prices are fluctuating and adjusting around 8.4 yuan/jin, only one mao away from the high price point of 8.5 yuan, but before the peak demand season arrives, it is estimated to be very difficult to break through. The arrival of this cold wave, with large-scale cooling weather, is conducive to the arrival of the peak period for cured meat production, and recently South China and the southern regions have already begun making cured meat, forming favorable news for pig price increases. It is expected that there is not much room for pig prices to pull back, and short-term movement will mainly be narrow-range adjustment. At the same time, what farmers must pay special attention to now is feeding management and epidemic prevention and control. An outbreak of porcine type O foot-and-mouth disease occurred in Lianxi District, Jiujiang, Jiangxi, and everyone must take preventive measures before problems occur.
At present, pig prices in the north are fluctuating slightly within a stable range, while pig prices in the south are mainly stable. Weather factors continue to affect the trend of the pig market, but in some areas the weather has cleared, and slaughtering enterprises once again pressed prices down; however, the slow recovery of pork demand has made it difficult for the price-pressing trend to take hold on a large scale. The Northeast maintains an average price of around 8.3 yuan. Shandong has basically recovered the areas that previously fell. However, Henan is still in a downward trend. Shanxi and Hebei have now slightly stabilized after falling. Although other places are still declining, the decline has clearly narrowed. Guangdong, Fujian and other places are still calm and unremarkable.
The editor believes that pig prices will maintain a certain price level in the near term, and as temperatures continue to drop, pig prices are expected to improve later. However, at present, farmers are increasingly holding back pigs from the market, and the weight of pigs sent to slaughter is noticeably greater than in the earlier period, so one should not be overly optimistic. After all, in the nearly two months until the Spring Festival, imported pork can fully arrive in the country, and there is also a continuous inflow of smuggled pigs. But one also should not panic because of frequent price pressure from slaughterhouses or pig buyers, causing a selling-off mentality and thereby hurting pig prices.