2017 Pig Price Forecast: Will Pig Prices Keep Rising?

With a price cycle of one every three years, 2016 was no ordinary year. At the start of the year, both piglet and fattening pig prices soared all the way up, but in the second half of the year they began to fall. Add to that the introduction of environmental protection policies, which put considerable pressure on pig farmers. Faced with such inevitable fluctuations in pig prices at present, will live pig prices still rise in 2017?

The author will share with everyone why pig prices rose at the start of the year and then kept falling from the second half onward.

1. Overcapacity

In the first half of the year, live pig prices kept rising, so people rushed in droves into the pig farming industry. Because most of them used full-course feed, the pigs were ready for market in 3-4 months, and the second half of the year happened to be exactly the time for them to be sent to market. This caused the overall volume sent to market to suddenly become too large, so slaughterhouses began to force down live pig prices. Add to that the continuous increase in imported pork, so when supply exceeds demand for any product, it is normal for the price to fall naturally.

2. Pig farmers are eager to sell

Because they were already facing the risk of slaughterhouses forcing prices down due to supply exceeding demand, and since pigs have a growth cycle, if they are not sent to market when the time comes, the feed cost and the feed-to-meat ratio produced will not be in direct proportion. They also worried that slaughterhouses would keep forcing prices down, so they could only sell off their pigs with reluctance, which put them right into the slaughterhouses' full trap.

3. Corn prices fell

Corn is the main raw material for pig feed. For various reasons this year, corn prices fell, which lowered pig farming costs to some extent. Because there were too many pig farmers, many saw slaughterhouses forcing prices down and so sold at low prices, so falling corn prices were also one reason causing live pig prices to fall.

Now let's look at whether live pig prices will rise in 2017.

1. Faced with this year's fall in live pig prices, quite a few farmers have lost money and will exit the pig farming industry.

2. With the environmental protection policies introduced this year, quite a few small and medium-sized farmers have been shut down.

From the above 2 points, next year may lead to a situation where live pig supply falls short of demand, but based on the pig farming experience of the founder of the most encouraging farm, although there will be such a small supply of live pigs, do not be too optimistic either. There is also imported pork. If domestic demand really is insufficient, they may consider imported pork to fill this gap. So friends who still want to keep raising pigs in 2017 should first do a good job of things like sales channels, so that when the pigs are ready for market they do not face the same situation as this year.