Duckling prices rebound, but caution still needed when adding to flocks

Duckling prices stage a comeback, but caution still needed when restocking. According to longstanding custom, farmers generally restock ducklings in spring and autumn, because temperatures are suitable then and farming costs are relatively low, so farmers are also more enthusiastic about restocking. But this year has been unusual: from the end of June to July this year, duckling prices nationwide rose strongly, with the average price climbing from 0.88 yuan per bird to 3.30 yuan per bird, a gain of 275%.

And now in November, the duckling market is not in an upward phase either, but according to reporters, since the start of November, duckling prices have risen in many places across the country. So what is the reason for this round of duckling price increases? Should farmers actively restock?

Wang Yongning of Shandong Weifang Legang Food Co., Ltd. told reporters that since the start of this year, some new breeds such as grassland ducks have appeared on the duckling market, but their market share is not very large, so they have not brought much impact to the overall market. Because the number of ducklings has decreased over the past two years, overall this year's duckling market is better than last year's, and prices have improved markedly.

Wang Yongning: Compared with last year, this year is somewhat better, prices are much better; last year was below the cost line. The reason this year is better is still that the number of ducklings has decreased, because after four consecutive years of losses, once the overall number of ducklings fell, overall duckling prices rose.

Guo Dandan, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that in the same period of 2015, mainly affected by weather and poor product sales at slaughtering enterprises, ducklings were in a declining state. But by early November this year, duckling prices in the north stopped falling and rose, with prices rising from 2.30 yuan per bird to 3 yuan per bird, a gain of 30.43%.

Guo Dandan: Recently, ducklings as a whole have shown a slight up-and-down fluctuation. From November 4-10, Cherry Valley ducklings began to rise, with the national average price rising from 2.65 yuan/bird to 3.18 yuan/bird, a cumulative gain of 20%; the average duckling price was 2.98 yuan/bird, up 20.16% from the same period.

On the 11th of this month, the duckling market rose to a high level. In Guo Dandan's view, there are two main reasons for this rebound from the bottom in duckling prices: first, clear weather boosted farmers' enthusiasm for restocking; second, sales of duck cut products were smooth and product prices rose, but the market supply of large ducks was relatively tight, and cold storage plants became more active in placing contracts, with both supply and sales brisk.

Guo Dandan: Recently the temperature has improved, and farmers' enthusiasm for restocking ducklings has increased somewhat; for cold storage plants, the market for cut products from live ducks has risen, dealers are more active in placing contracts, market trading is normal, and hatcheries' scheduling plans are smooth.

Regarding the impact of duckling prices and production areas, analyst Guo Dandan told reporters: production areas are roughly divided into two major regions, north and south. The north mainly covers Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and Anhui, where trends are basically the same; the southern region mainly involves Guangdong and Guangxi, where price rises and falls are also basically the same, with the price gap generally within 2 mao per jin. In addition, there is another reason for the recent rise in duckling prices: Yinan County in Shandong, a major duckling county, relaxed its environmental protection policy and weakened restrictions on farming, so the volume of restocking increased.

Guo Dandan: Because environmental protection policy was eased in the Yinan area, slaughtering enterprises increased their placement volume. Various favorable factors supported a sharp rise in duckling prices.

Wang Yongning of Shandong Weifang Legang Food Co., Ltd. told reporters that rises and falls in duckling prices often happen in an instant, and the main thing to watch is the difference between placement volume and slaughter volume. In his view, prices have now risen to the high level of 3 yuan, and later they should enter a downward channel; looking at this year, the trend should be downward through the end of the year.

Wang Yongning: November is a process of steady increase. After reaching the price of 3 yuan, I estimate it has peaked, and later it will certainly fall back. Farming and production are not quite the same; duckling prices are falling back, and the extent of the fallback is affected by the price.

But because the appearance of high prices has suppressed demand, duckling prices lack the momentum to continue climbing; moreover, entering November, the volume of commercial ducklings emerging will gradually increase, which is not favorable to further increases in duckling prices. Analyst Guo Dandan expects that later duckling prices may adjust within a narrow range while remaining stable. She advises farmers that during the current period when duckling prices are hovering at a high level, they can restock a modest amount.

Guo Dandan: The duckling market fluctuates frequently but with small amplitude. At present, the duckling market is running at a high level, and hatcheries' scheduling plans are gradually slowing. Especially in the Guangxi region, affected by rainfall, the duckling market has already shown a decline. Therefore, Zhuochuang Information expects that in the near term the duckling market will show a trend of stabilizing first and then falling.