2017 Pork Price Market Analysis: Two Major Reasons Will Affect the Trend

Pork prices stayed high throughout the Year of the Monkey. How will pork prices trend in 2017? On the 3rd, a reporter learned from the Municipal Price Bureau that the overall pork price level in 2017 is expected to be lower than in 2016, but attention should also be paid to the uncertain effects of extreme weather and disease outbreaks on pork prices.

Information from the Municipal Price Bureau shows that in 2016, the city's pork market was generally in a state of tight supply-demand balance, with prices running high. The annual average price was 16.12 yuan/500 g, up 15.69% year on year, with both the price and the increase hitting new highs since January 2008 and January 2012 respectively.

According to a survey, in the second half of last year, large-scale farmers across the city made a profit of 491.30 yuan per pig, with a cost-profit ratio of 26.38%.

Since the second half of 2016, hog production has gradually improved, and coupled with weakening growth in pork consumption demand, the overall pork price level in 2017 is expected to be lower than in 2016, but attention should also be paid to the uncertain effects of extreme weather and disease outbreaks on pork prices.

　　According to the analysis, pork prices this year will be lower than last year's level, mainly for two reasons。

First, as pork prices rose last year, the breeding industry enjoyed hefty profits, and farmers' enthusiasm for restocking continued to strengthen. According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture, in the first 11 months of 2016, the national hog inventory showed month-on-month growth in 6 months, and hog production capacity is steadily recovering.

Second, affected by the diversification of consumption structure, growth in pork consumption has weakened in recent years, and demand lacks the momentum to drive pork prices up sharply.