2017 Potato, Mung Bean, Peanut and Silage Corn Price Trends and Profit Analysis
Original title:2017 Potato, mung bean, peanut and silage corn price outlook and market risk warnings!
According to information from China National Radio's Countryside Voice, in 2016 China carried out structural adjustment of the corn planting industry, adjusting nearly 30 million mu of area in non-dominant production regions such as the "sickle bend," and in 2017 a further reduction of 10 million mu is planned. With corn no longer being planted, many farmer friends are planning to switch to potatoes, mung beans, silage corn, peanuts and other crops whose market "money prospects" appear slightly better, but they also want to know whether planting these crops this year can make money? What changes will occur in market prices?
The editor has collected and organized information addressing everyone's questions, for your reference!
Potato
Price outlook
Judging from the pattern of price movements, the high points of potato market prices mostly appear in April-May each year. It is expected that potato price fluctuations in 2017 will still follow the perennial fluctuation pattern, with an overall oscillating trend.
Two stages
Specifically, it can be divided into two stages:
The first stage is January-April 2017. During this stage the market mainly digests the 2016 stored potatoes, and the holiday effects of New Year's Day, Spring Festival and Qingming will support potato prices in continuing to maintain a relatively high level;
The second stage is May-December. As early-maturing potatoes come onto the market successively, storage merchants will accelerate dumping in mid-to-late May and early June, and prices may fall rapidly; later, autumn potatoes will come onto the market in large quantities, market supply will increase substantially, and downward pressure on prices will continue to intensify.
Risk warnings and suggestions
The risk of concentrated spring potato sales becomes prominent
As potato storage conditions change next spring, the possibility of concentrated sales increases, and prices may also experience large fluctuations.
It is suggested to pay close attention to market dynamics, sell potatoes in a balanced way and at the right time, and prevent phenomena such as large concentrated market arrivals causing major market fluctuations and unsalable produce from occurring again.
The risk of potato supply-demand imbalance is increasing day by day
Since 2015, the state has vigorously advanced the strategy of using processed potatoes as staple food and vigorously promoted potato production development; and potatoes have still become the unquestioned choice for agricultural structural adjustment in "sickle bend" areas and for the targeted poverty alleviation strategy in western regions.
It is suggested that in agricultural structural adjustment, grain-potato rotation be advanced in an orderly manner, and farmers be guided to arrange planting rationally and not blindly follow trends. This can both promote soil fertility recovery and disease prevention and control, and also ease market fluctuations.
Silage corn
Price outlook
Judging from prices in recent years, the price of silage corn each year has basically changed little. What determines whether livestock farms purchase silage corn feed is the price of cattle and sheep, especially for beef cattle: if the price of beef is good, the use of silage corn will increase. However, as the silage corn planting area grows, the possibility of a large downward adjustment in silage corn prices later cannot be ruled out.
It is expected that the average price of silage corn in 2017 will be 245 yuan/ton, down 3.16% from the 2016 price.
Risk warnings and suggestions
Weather conditions
Looking at 2016, Qiqihar and other places in Heilongjiang suffered from drought, corn harvests were poor, and some farmers sold directly at low prices, which to a certain extent pulled down local silage corn prices.
Production and sales need to be combined to avoid regional oversupply
At present, some beef cattle farmers have not yet used silage corn in large quantities. If the regional supply is excessive, it will certainly pull down local market prices and cause unnecessary losses to farmers.
Silage corn planting still requires a certain level of technology. Some farmers are limited by their planting technology, making it difficult for silage corn quality to meet standards.
Mung bean
Price outlook
It is expected that in the first and second quarters of 2017, the supply of high-quality goods of domestically produced commodity mung beans and mung bean sprouts will be limited, and prices will be stable. But after new grain comes onto the market, prices will decline slightly.