China's total grain demand will peak in 2030
Using a method of estimation by population structure classification and combined aggregation, various factors such as population growth, urbanization and aging are comprehensively incorporated into the predictive analysis of total grain demand. Research shows that the increase in total demand for animal products makes feed grain the main factor driving the growth of total grain demand. Feed grain demand will reach a peak of 51,971 million tons in 2030, while corresponding food grain consumption will decline to 19,858 million tons. Under the interaction of the two, the peak total demand for edible grain (excluding soybean oil and soybean products) will reach 71,829 million tons.
Total population and its structural characteristics have a decisive impact on total grain demand. To predict total grain demand, it is necessary, after grasping the characteristics of future changes in the dietary structure of micro-level actors, to further consider the combined effects of future total population growth, urban-rural population structure changes, population age structure changes and other factors on total grain demand. This paper will use the existing relatively authoritative forecasts of total population, aging, urbanization and the agricultural migrant population, combined with previous determinations of the peak per capita grain demand of different groups, and adopt a method of estimation by population structure classification and combined aggregation to systematically integrate the effects of the above relevant factors, and then estimate the peak of China's total grain demand.
Population factors affecting total grain demand
Population is a key variable affecting total grain demand. An increase in total population will directly drive the growth of total grain demand, and factors such as urbanization and aging indirectly affect total grain demand through changes in population structure.
First, the population peak has a decisive impact on the peak of total grain demand. There are many domestic studies forecasting population, but with the adjustment of China's fertility policy, many forecast results are no longer applicable. According to estimates by the National Health and Family Planning Commission, after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, the arrival of China's population peak will be moderately delayed, and it is expected to reach a peak of 1.45 billion around 2030; after 2030, the total population will gradually decline, and it is expected to fall to 1.38 billion by 2050.
Second, urbanization will, through the transfer of rural population to cities and towns and the citizenization of migrant workers, drive the overall upgrading of China's dietary structure, thereby pushing up total grain demand. Huang Ji found relatively early the differences between urban and rural residents in the consumption of grains and animal products. Driven by urbanization, the transfer of rural residents to cities and towns will increase the proportion of animal products in residents' food consumption structure, thereby increasing total grain demand, but at the same time it may reduce calorie demand due to lower labor intensity after a change in the nature of work, bringing a certain downward effect on total grain demand. Wu Laping's survey research shows that because migrant workers expend a great deal of physical labor, they have higher per capita grain demand than both urban residents and rural residents. Li Guoxiang believes that the increase in outdoor dining by urban residents will also push up total grain demand. These factors were all taken into account in the previous determination of the peak per capita demand of different groups. From the perspective of total demand, we mainly deconstruct the impact of urbanization from two aspects.
On the one hand is the change in the urban-rural population ratio brought about by the increase in the urbanization rate. In the future, China will continue to advance urbanization. The forecast values of China's urbanization rate in 2020, 2025 and 2030 are 61.5%, 65.5% and 70% respectively. According to the forecast of China's urbanization rate in the next 10 years by the Development Research Center of the State Council, China's urbanization rate will reach 64.77% in 2024. Before 2024, we calculate according to its forecast figures. After 2024, it is assumed that from 2024 to 2030 the urbanization rate will grow at a uniform speed toward the target of 70%. After the urbanization rate reaches 70% in 2030, China will enter a period of stable urban-rural development, that is, the urbanization rate will remain stable at the level of 70%.
On the other hand is estimating the number of migrant workers working away from home based on the trend and potential of agricultural labor transfer. From the perspective of the transfer of rural labor, the speed of rural labor transfer has declined in recent years, but along with the improvement of agricultural labor productivity, there is still room for further transfer of rural labor. According to existing research, based on calculations of the population that current agricultural production capacity can support, in order to ensure food self-sufficiency security, with 2010 as the base period, the rural labor force that can still be transferred is 55.2 million. Taking into account the 31.72 million people newly transferred from 2011 to 2014, the rural labor force that can still be transferred on the basis of ensuring the food self-sufficiency rate is 23.48 million. Assuming that all rural labor transfer is completed by 2020, the average annual newly transferred rural labor force from 2015 to 2020 will be 3.91 million. It is then assumed that transferred rural labor uniformly becomes urban residents. Starting from 2021, transferred rural labor will be converted into urban population at a rate of 16 million per year until the conversion is exhausted in 2031. From this, the future numbers of urban population, rural population and migrant workers working away from home are estimated.
Third, population aging will lower total grain demand because the energy demand of older people declines. Research by Zhong Funing and others found that the age and gender structure of the population affects total grain demand. Using the standard person's daily energy intake requirement provided by FAO/WHO/UNU as the benchmark, they calculated the coefficient of difference in energy intake requirements for different age groups. The energy intake requirements of men aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80-89 are only equivalent to 0.89, 0.74, 0.70, 0.70 and 0.50 of the standard person's intake respectively; the energy intake requirements of older women are even lower, with the energy intake requirements of women aged 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and 80-89 only equivalent to 0.71, 0.64, 0.60, 0.55 and 0.40 of the standard person's intake respectively. Through this coefficient, the grain consumption of the elderly population can be adjusted, and combined with forecasts of China's population aging, the impact of aging can be incorporated into the calculation and analysis of the peak of total grain demand. The forecast figures for population aging adopt the research results of the China Development Research Foundation, namely that in 2027 the number of people aged over 60 in China will exceed 20% of the total population, and by 2050 will account for 28.88% of the total population.
Demand peaks for major grain-consuming foods
Based on the inferential analysis of the per capita consumption of major grain-consuming foods by urban residents, rural residents and migrant workers in China, combined with the above forecast data on population growth, urban-rural population structure and age structure, the future total demand for major grain-consuming foods in China can be obtained through classified aggregation, and on this basis the timing and peak values of the total demand peaks for each food category can be judged. Research results show that because the per capita consumption peak and the population peak of China's major livestock and poultry products both arrive around 2030, their total demand peaks will also arrive at that time. Population has a decisive impact on the growth of demand for various grain-consuming foods, and the total demand for all product categories will show an obvious turning point after the population peak is reached in 2030.
First, meat demand will maintain a relatively high growth rate in the future. China's meat consumption will reach a peak of 123.44 million tons in 2030, including 73.36 million tons of pork, 37.27 million tons of poultry meat, and 12.81 million tons of beef and mutton. In the future, China's total demand for meat will still increase by 31.56 million tons, and before 2022 it will maintain an average annual growth rate of more than 2%, increasing by about 2.4 million tons per year; as the upgrading and transformation of the dietary structure of urban residents is completed, the average annual growth rate from 2022 to 2030 will fall to about 1.6%, with an average annual increment of about 1.8 million tons, and only after reaching the peak in 2030 will it tend to decline.
Second, the total demand for dairy and aquatic products will continue to grow rapidly driven by the upgrading and transformation of the dietary structure of rural residents. Because the current consumption level of dairy and aquatic products by rural residents in China is very low, as the rural population gradually converts into urban population and rural income and consumption levels rise, there is still huge room for growth in demand for dairy and aquatic products, and total demand will continue to rise rapidly over a relatively long period as per capita consumption levels increase. The total demand for dairy and aquatic products will reach their peaks in sync with their respective per capita consumption. Dairy will reach a peak total demand of 109.19 million tons in 2047, and aquatic products will reach a peak total demand of 77.84 million tons in 2069. Driven by the upgrading and transformation of the dietary structure, in the future China's total demand for dairy and aquatic products will still increase by 59.91 million tons and 23.38 million tons respectively, and before the population peak arrives they will still increase by 3.4 million tons and 1.4 million tons per year respectively. Before the completion of the upgrading and transformation of the dietary structure of urban residents in 2022, the total volume of dairy and aquatic products will maintain average annual growth rates of about 6% and 2.5% respectively; from 2022 to 2030 the demand growth rate will fall somewhat, but under the influence of the upgrading and transformation of the dietary structure of rural residents and population growth, the average annual growth rates will still remain at about 4% and 2% respectively; after 2030 the growth rates will decline markedly with population decline, but under the effect of further deepening of the upgrading and transformation of the dietary structure of rural residents, they will still maintain low-speed growth over a relatively long period.