Can the December market continue to surge? Watch out for risks in the coming days
Hello fellow pig farmers, today is Wednesday, November 29. According to monitoring by Zhuyitong Ruiqi Data, today's national average live pig ex-farm price is 14.53 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from yesterday; the current pig price is still in a slight upward trend, with pig prices in some low-price areas rising by a larger margin, and a further increase of 0.2-0.3 yuan/kg is expected within this week. Below, Ale brings you today's detailed data:
From Table 1, we can see that today 14 regions including Guizhou (farmland, commercial-residential land, industrial land), Chongqing (farmland, commercial-residential land, industrial land) rose by 0.05-0.2 yuan/kg; the other 14 regions remained stable. The current highest live pig price is 15.3 yuan/kg in Chongqing, and the lowest price is 13.4 yuan/kg in ** (farmland, commercial-residential land, industrial land); the highest regional price is in the Southwest region, and the lowest in the Northwest region. It is worth noting that the Southwest and Northeast regions have strong momentum for further price increases, and some provinces have already seen increases of more than 0.6 yuan/kg.
According to Zhuyitong Ruiqi Data, the average live pig price rose by 0.52 yuan/kg in November, of which 0.46 yuan/kg of the increase was achieved in late November. Combined with pig prices in various regions, this wave of increases was driven by the sharp rise in the Southwest and Northeast. Regarding the current market, many pig farmers have repeatedly changed their target selling standards, and it is certain that the most intense game in the second half of 2017 will play out in December.
On the demand side, according to sales at wholesale markets and supermarkets, demand has gradually increased since late November, especially with a larger increase at the end of the month; this year's Winter Solstice falls on December 22, which is a turning point for the annual surge in national consumption in past years, and this year should be no exception. Therefore, it is certain that the seasonal consumption peak in December is about to arrive, and it will continue until the Spring Festival.
On the supply side, farmers currently have a strong sentiment of holding back sales in anticipation of higher prices, and the common mindset in the industry is "the last money-making opportunity this year." Secondary fattening is also becoming active again. The time window everyone is eyeing recently is none other than the Winter Solstice and New Year's Day period, when a major wave of concentrated selling is highly likely to unfold.
In summary, as buyers and sellers continue to battle, pig price increases will be hindered and stabilize, and there is a risk of decline in the future market. Operational advice: do not wait for so-called high prices; sell on rallies in early and mid-December, avoiding the Winter Solstice and New Year's Day nodes.