Why does the national peanut market keep declining?
"The peanut price isn't good this year. Last year the 'red fatties' sold for 14-16 yuan/kg, and this year selling at 12 yuan/kg is already something to be thankful for." Zhao Ping, a peanut grower in Henan (farmland, commercial and residential land, industrial land), looked helpless. As Zhao Ping said, although peanuts in the main producing areas across the country have already been harvested, as they enter the peak marketing period, prices keep falling, leaving many growers feeling disheartened.
In the view of Xu Chunhui, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, the overall peanut market is indeed somewhat volatile. Xu Chunhui said that since the new-season peanuts came onto the market this year, the overall domestic peanut market has been in a situation of mixed rises and falls, with market prices all showing a certain year-on-year decline. Entering early November, the domestic peanut market continued to maintain a stable range with slight fluctuations, with market prices in some areas rising and falling, and strengths and weaknesses appearing among different varieties. "Looking at the main producing areas in Shandong (farmland, commercial and residential land, industrial land), white sand peanut prices have risen, the amount arriving on the market is relatively small, and good-quality goods are moving quickly. At present, the price of new-season ungraded peanut pods in the Shandong market is 4800-5000 yuan per tonne, basically flat with last week; the price of ungraded peanut kernels is 7000-7300 yuan per tonne, up 250 yuan per tonne from last week; in the Henan area, the overall amount arriving on the market is not large, prices are basically stable, and large peanut prices are steady with a slightly stronger bias. At present, the price of ungraded white sand peanut kernels in the Henan market is 7400-7600 yuan per tonne, little changed from last week." Xu Chunhui told this writer.
Xu Chunhui analyzed that the reason peanut prices fell this year is mainly the larger supply caused by expanded peanut planting area. He said: "This year, the new peanut planting area in most areas such as Henan, Jilin (farmland, commercial and residential land, industrial land), Shandong, Hebei (farmland, commercial and residential land, industrial land), Jiangsu (farmland, commercial and residential land, industrial land), and Anhui (farmland, commercial and residential land, industrial land) increased compared with last year. It is preliminarily estimated that China's peanut output this year will be 17.4 million tonnes, an increase of about 2.35% over the previous year." In addition, Xu Chunhui also said that the sluggish peanut prices have led some farmers to hope to keep prices stable by holding back sales, but weak market demand has prevented peanut prices from rising substantially.
As for future price trends, Xu Chunhui believes that compared with ordinary peanuts, the price of high-quality peanuts will improve. Xu Chunhui said that, affected by the previous round of market gains, domestic peanut farmers' willingness to sell is now noticeably weaker than in the early period when new peanuts came onto the market, and they have a strong reluctance to sell good goods, while some areas are still busy with farm work, so the overall amount arriving on the market is not large; in the short term, kernels of slightly poorer quality will be affected by oil mills' strict control standards, so consumption will also be limited, and prices may continue to adjust weakly; high-quality goods may see relatively firm prices because of small inventories and high demand. Xu Ruobin Source: Shanxi (farmland, commercial and residential land, industrial land) Farmers' Daily (Taiyuan (farmland, commercial and residential land, industrial land))