The live pig market is unpredictable; pig prices are unlikely to rise sharply before the holiday

Summary: The impact of the live pig transport ban is not significant, and the possibility of a decline in live pig prices before the holiday is low

In recent days, pig prices have fluctuated again. The original upward momentum came to an abrupt halt, and current pig prices even show a downward trend. Looking at national external three-way cross pig prices, the average price has already reached 14.19 yuan per kg, once again falling 0.49% from the previous day. Although this decline is not too large, if it continues to slide, it is very likely to break below 7 yuan per jin. At the same time, due to the impact of African swine fever, several major live pig breeding provinces have imposed live pig transport bans. Under such circumstances, can pig prices still rise in the future? Below, Science Agriculture will briefly share its own views.

Judging from the current situation, live pig prices are basically highest in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, among which prices in the Zhejiang area have climbed to a new high and have reached 10 yuan per jin, while in Northeast China they still remain at around 6 yuan per jin. The emergence of this situation is largely related to the current live pig transport ban.

Because the areas where swine fever broke out are basically major breeding provinces in China, such as Henan, Northeast China and Anhui, these areas supply more than half of the country's live pigs. Now, due to the ban on transporting live pigs to other places to avoid spreading swine fever, although this has played a major role in controlling swine fever, from another perspective, the policy has also caused live pig prices in areas where swine fever broke out to fall because the pigs cannot be transported out. Other areas, meanwhile, will see large increases in pig prices.

As for Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, which are coastal industrially developed areas, the breeding industry itself is very weak, and the current situation is precisely caused by the transport ban. For breeding supply areas with relatively weak local consumption capacity, the situation is different: severe oversupply has led to the peculiar situation in which pig prices are falling even though the holiday is right around the corner.

Science Agriculture believes that although current pig prices are unstable, they are unlikely to fall sharply. The holiday is getting closer and closer. Although the transport ban has a considerable impact on local supply in the market, overall, the holiday's pulling effect on live pig market prices is still very obvious. Moreover, for major pig-raising provinces, the increase in pig prices itself is relatively low. Although this year's live pig market supply is relatively large, there is already very little room for a pullback.

For Northeast China, where prices remain near the cost line, the room for adjustment is even narrower. In the upcoming holiday peak period, market purchasing will enter peak season. Science Agriculture believes that at least before National Day there will not be a large-scale decline.

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