Middle and late rice are gradually coming onto the market, and current prices are slightly lower than last year.

Summary: Affected by the downward adjustment of the rice minimum purchase price, this year's rice prices are lower than last year.

At present, middle and late rice have gradually come onto the market, and prices are slightly lower than last year, though this may also be related to this year's downward adjustment of the rice minimum purchase price. At the current price level, it has not yet reached the minimum purchase price of 1.26 yuan per jin. If this continues, it is probably only a matter of time before the minimum purchase scheme is activated. Earlier reports said that Hunan and Jiangxi have already drawn up minimum purchase plans, and minimum purchase purchases may be launched at any time. In the future, with the launch of temporary reserve purchases, it is highly likely that rice prices will gradually recover and even rise steadily. Moreover, overall rice output this year has declined somewhat, which also represents an improvement on the supply side.

When early indica rice came onto the market this year, it opened low. As prices gradually rebounded, it later also reached the minimum purchase price of 1.2 yuan per jin. Science Xingnong expects that the future market for middle and late rice will most likely continue the above situation.

This year, the general growth condition of rice was not as good as last year. High temperatures and drought in summer had a certain impact on rice pollination and growth, and this year there were especially many typhoons, with volatile weather. Strong winds also caused relatively serious lodging in rice fields. Overall, production conditions are still somewhat worse than last year, and per-unit yield may be slightly inferior to last year.

According to reports, since Teachers' Day on September 10, northern Heilongjiang has suspended auctions of rice from 2013-2015, while auction volumes of rice from 2016-2017 have also been reduced and kept at a low level. Rice auctions in the south will also end at the end of September. That is to say, after entering October, the market will undergo a role switch, with fresh rice gradually coming onto the market to replace old rice, and temporary reserve purchases will also be launched on a large scale, increasing market rice procurement. In the coming October, it is expected that the current sluggish market price levels can be broken, and this is something that can be anticipated.

In addition, this year's downward adjustment of the rice minimum purchase price has also restrained this year's rice prices. Judging from the trend of rice prices in China, they are basically still policy-led. On the one hand, policy makes market rice prices more stable; on the other hand, it also interferes with market supply and demand. Temporary reserve auctions make it very difficult for prices to rise substantially even if the market lacks grain.

China's rice supply is sufficient. With rice consumption currently relatively stable, even if there is relatively high demand in the short term, it is very difficult for rice prices to stage a substantial phased increase. At present, rice prices are below the minimum purchase price. After minimum purchase purchases are launched next, prices will correspondingly recover to a certain extent.

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