Will wheat prices continue to rise this year?

Summary: With the two festivals approaching, will wheat prices continue to rise?

Wheat is China's third-largest grain crop after rice and corn. It is also an important pillar related to the national economy, people's livelihood, and food security. So what is the current wheat price?

Based on the latest market quotes, wheat prices are generally stable, with slight declines in some areas. At present, flour enterprises on the market have relatively sufficient wheat stockpiles, the autumn harvest has already begun, winter wheat is about to be planted, traders are actively selling grain, market supply is relatively sufficient, grain prices are generally stable, and slight downward adjustments have appeared in some areas. The purchase price of national standard second-grade common wheat is 1.18 yuan/jin.

What will the future trend of wheat prices be like?

The price of high-quality wheat is rising steadily. High-quality wheat has always been in short supply on the market. This morning, watching Chaowen Tianxia, at a certain coastal wharf, the purchase of high-quality wheat was underway, with large trucks lined up to load onto cargo ships, and the daily loading and transfer volume was above 1000 tons. The purchase price of high-quality wheat is around 1.35, more than 1 mao per jin more expensive than conventional wheat on the market.

Since high-quality wheat is so expensive, why does the state not encourage everyone to plant it? That is because high-quality wheat has a common problem: its yield is relatively lower, and its stress resistance is also weaker. This year, a late spring cold spell around Qingming was a devastating disaster for high-quality wheat. It caused many wheat plants to fail to head, or to produce only half heads, and high-quality wheat suffered especially severe yield reductions.

In a certain place in Xinxiang, Henan, a large-scale farmer planted more than 1000 mu of Xinmai 26. He originally chose this wheat because he saw that it was high-quality wheat and could sell at a high price. In the end, the average yield per mu at harvest was only 500-600 jin. It could not even match the income from conventional wheat planted by others. So high quality does not necessarily mean high yield and high income.

Affected by this year's grain supply, total grain production capacity has decreased. The current wheat price is at a moderate level. Influenced by the state's supply-side reform, in the past two years wheat purchasing has shifted from being mainly government reserve purchasing to relying on the market, thus revitalizing market stock and stimulating market initiative. Some large grain processing plants give priority to purchasing high-quality wheat and wheat supplied on the market for fine processing and deep processing, while grain of poor quality is diverted to feed mills.

It is expected that in the fourth quarter, wheat prices will rise steadily, breaking through 1.35 or even 1.4 yuan per jin. Of course, this price does not refer to high-quality wheat; after screening, strong-gluten high-quality wheat has now broken through 1.5 yuan/jin. If you have certain storage capacity (good ventilation, good rainproof and moisture-proof effects), there is no need to rush to sell. If you lack storage capacity, you should still sell as early as possible to reduce risks and protect your own interests first.

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