Pig prices have risen. Can this rally last?

Summary: The pig market has seen regional price increases, but a large-scale rise is unlikely.

Recently, pig prices have seen a rare run of consecutive increases, and looking at today's pig prices, they are still rising across the board. Science Xingnong noticed that pig prices in a certain place in Zhejiang reached 9.8 yuan per jin. As for pig prices in most regions across the country, they are currently basically stable at levels above 7.5 yuan per jin. Judging from the current situation, the talk of a big rise in pig prices should be regarded as regional fluctuation, and nationwide it is still impossible, and there is no pattern for a widespread big rise. Science Xingnong believes that such a big rise is not sustainable, and likewise is not sustainable.

Regional supply imbalance

As for the recent local rises in pig prices, Science Xingnong believes the most critical reason is regional supply imbalance. Judging from the regions where prices have recently risen, they are basically concentrated in Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang; while in places like Liaoning, pig prices have even fallen at present, with prices in extreme areas at only 5.7 yuan per jin.

Judging from the distribution of pig farming in our country, the major provinces that ship pigs out are basically concentrated in the three provincial-level regions of Northeast China, Henan and Anhui. However, the three regions near the recent pig price increases - Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang - have all seen big price rises, and this is no coincidence.

Recently, outbreaks of swine fever occurred in Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu, and pigs from the above regions have also been banned from being shipped out. As a result, there has been a severe shortage in the local supply of pigs in the three coastal regions. The situation of lacking a source of pigs is believed not to last too long; the African swine fever outbreak has now gradually come under control, so this surge in the market is not sustainable.

The oversupply pattern remains unchanged

Judging from the current pattern of pig prices in our country, pig prices in Northeast China are still very low at present. Although they have improved somewhat compared with mid-May, in actual terms, prices in individual areas are still fluctuating around 6 yuan, and the situation of fluctuating near or at the cost line remains unchanged.

The reason such a situation has arisen is that, on the one hand, it shows that shipping pigs out of Northeast China is not easy, and on the other hand, it also shows that pigs are indeed already in oversupply. Regarding this judgment, there is also relevant information from a press conference by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, which mentioned many times that this year's pig supply pattern will not change. The African swine fever outbreak now has made the transfer of pigs even more difficult, and quarantine procedures have become stricter. This has led to a pile-up of pigs. However, for non-affected areas, emotional panic has also led farmers to send pigs to market relatively actively, and pig supply is relatively very loose. It can be said that this year's pig prices have not risen by much compared with previous years.

Science Xingnong predicts that pig prices will rise further, and in the future may gradually fall back in the latter part of the month or after National Day. For farmers, pay attention to guarding against risks, avoid expanding the scale of farming, and send pigs to market as the opportunity arises.

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