This year's drought can be said to have run through the entire corn growth period. During the corn seedling stage, the lack of moisture in the fields affected the germination rate, and the corn emergence rate was uneven. As for the corn that did emerge in the fields, many also suffered from weak seedlings due to the drought in the later period. In addition, because of the uneven size of the corn plants, the population structure was unreasonable, and during the tasseling stage the corn also experienced incomplete pollination or failure to pollinate, resulting in pointed tips or protruding ears. It should be said that this year's corn situation has already been confirmed beyond doubt. For farmers, the only hope is to sell at a good price this autumn.

However, as far as this year's market is concerned, Science Xingnong believes that the price increase will still be limited. On this point, I have also pointed out many times before that the current situation of corn in our country is continuous positive news, yet prices do not rise! The reason such an odd situation has emerged, Science Xingnong believes, is caused by the following reasons.

Policy-based auctions

The biggest impact on the corn market must be the temporary storage. After the Spring Festival until mid-March, corn prices rose all the way. In just one and a half months, corn prices rose by 20%. However, in March a temporary storage auction pushed the prices down. The temporary storage auctions played an important role in stabilizing grain prices, and naturally, in the process of grain price increases, they also played a restraining role, regulating the balance of market supply through an invisible hand and ensuring the stability of corn prices this autumn.

Corn market supply is sufficient

The reason corn is sufficient this year is mainly that temporary storage corn is sufficient. According to institutional estimates, there is still 100 million tons of corn in temporary storage at present. With such a huge supply of corn, it is enough to ensure market stability. According to estimates by many media outlets, based on the demand at the corn consumption end this year and the domestic corn production capacity this year, this year's corn gap will exceed 20 million tons. But even if this figure can ultimately be confirmed, in the face of a 100 million ton temporary storage reserve, do you think the market corn price can rise? It can only be said to be difficult, very difficult!

In summary, it is indeed not easy for corn prices to rise this year. However, because inventories continue to decline this year, production capacity has decreased somewhat, positive factors for corn are coming one after another, and agricultural input costs have climbed again this year, it is believed that corn prices will rise somewhat this autumn. But as said above, do not hold too much hope; a small increase would already be good.

As for soybeans, the situation is different. According to estimates by multiple media outlets, after reducing the volume of soybeans imported from the United States, our country's soybean imports this year will be reduced by 10 million tons compared with 2017. In this way, there will be a strong stimulus for domestically produced soybeans in our country, and a price increase will also be a high-probability event. Although the soybean price has not yet shown much advantage at present, as time goes on in the future, a price increase will be a high-probability event.

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