New corn output faces a double decline, and hopes of a continued rise this year are slim

For this year's corn output, Science Farming wants to use the term below to express "double decline," meaning that this year's corn output will see not only a drop in per-unit yield but also a drop in total output. There is only about a month and a half left before the new corn harvest, and under the current situation, there is almost no possibility of saying corn output will rise.

This year, corn has gone through one setback after another. In April, before corn was even planted, a vast area of Northeast China received instructions from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requiring a comprehensive expansion of soybean planting, and according to China's notice on supply-side structural reform of grain, the need to reduce corn was also relatively strong. The expanded soybean area could only be increased by reducing part of the corn area. As a result, corn planting area declined somewhat, and total output naturally could not be guaranteed.

After corn was sown, the corn seedling stage then encountered large-scale drought weather. The emergence rate was relatively low, and at the same time corn growth was uneven, the population structure was unreasonable, and photosynthetic use efficiency was relatively low. The corn plants that broke through the soil early grew relatively strongly, while the corn that emerged later grew weakly and, shaded by the leaves of the corn that had emerged earlier, could not efficiently use photosynthetic efficiency. At that time, institutions had already predicted a strong expectation of reduced corn output this year, and it even briefly stimulated the corn price at that time to rise.

Now most regions across the country are once again facing large-scale drought, pollen vitality has declined, the pollination rate is relatively low, the rate of pointed tips on later corn is high, and the seed-setting rate is relatively low, once again increasing the possibility of reduced output.

From the above points, the probability of reduced corn output this year is almost 100 percent.

This year may be somewhat unlucky, with wheat output reduced earlier, garlic prices plunging, and now corn output reduction as well. For farmers, what they can hope for next is that grain prices can rise.

As for this autumn's corn grain price, today Science Farming also states that the price will most likely increase somewhat. This is not only because the cost of agricultural inputs for planting has risen somewhat. For the vast number of farmers, agricultural planting income can be said to be the entire source of household income, and their only hope is that grain prices can rise.

According to estimates by media organizations, this year China's corn grain gap will reach a record high of 20 million tons, and combined with such a strong expectation of reduced corn output this year, the momentum for corn price increases this year is even more sufficient.

However, relatively large uncertainty still comes from grain reserves. As of now, grain reserves have already auctioned 6,200 million tons of corn, and another 20 million tons of corn has not yet left the warehouse. This corn all faces competition with new corn on the market, forming a relatively large impact on the market.

Whether corn prices can rise in the future actually depends to a large extent on grain reserves. In March, everyone should be clear that before mid-March, prices had been rising continuously, but then a series of auctions drove corn prices into the abyss. They simply were unable to break through the previous high price again.

No matter what, with this year's corn output reduction almost certain, here we can only hope that grain reserves can rest and adjust, free up a certain market space for new corn, and add a layer of insurance for this year's corn farmers' income.

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