With this year's early cold snap in late spring, and the emergence of long-period frosts and hail, the reduction of the new-season apple crop is already confirmed, but specific figures range from 30% to even half; Science Xingnong believes that production will decline somewhat, but it is unrealistic to expect this to drive a large price increase.

This year apple prices will decline slightly in the short term, and around September after the apple harvest they are expected to rise, but the long-term trend of a large price increase is not promising. The reasons are as follows:

Fruit growers are a vulnerable group, with little say in the price chain

In many agricultural product chains, middlemen like disaster years and dislike bumper harvest years. Why? Because when apple production is low and the price reaching consumers is high, they are the biggest profit makers, while the ones who get hurt are the fruit growers. If we calculate based on a 30% drop in apple harvest, and assuming apple quality is unchanged, this year's market apple prices will inevitably rise a lot, but if it rises 10% by the time it reaches the fruit growers, that is already good; compared with the 30% drop in production, the ones who get hurt are inevitably the fruit growers. So this year's trend of a big apple price rise is unrealistic.

In summer, large quantities of southern fruits hit the market, and apple inventories tend to stabilize

With all kinds of fresh fruits coming onto the market, prices of all kinds of fruits are moving lower, and cold-stored apples differ greatly in taste from newly marketed apples. As the apple harvest season approaches, if last year's cold-storage apples are not sold off, they will be unable to compete with newly marketed apples. Traders will plan inventory sales based on stock levels to welcome a new round of apple purchasing. So in the short term, apple prices will tend to decline.

Among the army of apple growers, only high-quality apples can remain invincible

In recent years, the whole country has joined the army of apple growing. As of these past two years, apples have all entered full bearing period, and the increase in production will undoubtedly break the original balance in apple supply and demand. With limited apple exports and insufficient deep-processing capacity, low-quality apples will inevitably be weeded out by the market within 3-5 years.

In a fruit market where low prices hurt growers and a bumper harvest does not bring a bumper income, there is no need to pin hopes on praying for favorable weather to get a good harvest, nor to remain trapped in the strange cycle where prices cannot rise after a disaster. Nowadays there are many apple varieties; what is lacking is the establishment of professional brands. As a vulnerable group, fruit growers should strengthen cooperation among themselves, form their own industrialization and competitiveness, and improve apple quality, so as to truly have a say in the price chain.

The above comes from Science Xingnong.