Let's first look at last year's 2017 rice support price. The minimum purchase prices for early indica rice (grade three, the same below), mid-late indica rice and japonica rice produced in 2017 were 130 yuan, 136 yuan and 150 yuan per 50 kg respectively. The three types of rice were cut by 3 yuan, 2 yuan and 5 yuan respectively compared with 2016.

This year, 2018, the rice support price was cut again, down by 10 yuan, 10 yuan and 20 yuan year-on-year compared with 2017, a larger cut than last year. It can be seen that policy support has weakened, so it has played a certain restraining role on rice price increases.

It can be said that the rice market price is not optimistic, but there is still a lot of room for price increases for high-quality rice. Overall, however, rice prices this year will not fluctuate sharply; personally, I think prices will basically be on par with last year, and the possibility of exceeding last year's rice prices is relatively low.

The first factor affecting prices is the cut in the minimum rice support price mentioned above, and because the size of this cut is so large, it will naturally have a certain restraining effect on rice prices.

The second factor affecting rice price increases is the auction of rice from temporary grain reserves. The market for old rice is ample and prices are relatively low, which also affects rice price increases to a certain extent.

Furthermore, July marks the start of the rice harvest period. The harvest time for early indica rice is relatively concentrated, and after August mid-late rice comes onto the market one after another. With rice concentrated on the market, it is hard for early rice prices to rise. Although the auction of old early rice has been suspended, there is still inventory and prices are low, which will naturally also affect rice prices.

Another point is the rice subsidy announced this year. Although the specific subsidy measures have not yet been introduced for the time being, what is certain is that this will, to a certain extent, reduce the losses farmers suffer from rice price fluctuations. Farming is not easy for farmers, and I believe the state understands this very well.

Finally, judging from the opening purchase prices in some rice-producing areas in the south, the situation is not very optimistic.

Although from the above information the possibility of rice prices rising this year is not great, what is currently in short supply on the market is high-quality rice. Market demand for high-quality rice is considerable, but there is still some time before rice from the Northeast region comes onto the market, so by then there will be another wave of changes in the rice market.

In summary, the possibility of rice market prices exceeding last year's this year is not very great.

The above comes from Kexue Xingnong.