2009 Broiler Market Review and Future Trend Analysis

Main factors affecting the broiler farming industry; in 2009, the broiler farming industry was mainly affected by two factors: the world economic crisis and mixed infection of Newcastle disease and avian influenza. The impact of the economic crisis. The economic crisis first affects employment, then purchasing power. Chicken sales both domestically and abroad declined, the purchase price of live chickens fell, farmers' enthusiasm for raising chickens was dampened, and broiler chick prices slid. After a slightly longer period, this led to a decline in the number of breeding chickens raised. The impact of mixed infection of Newcastle disease and avian influenza. This is the factor most subject to natural forces in our country's chicken farming industry. But it is a double-edged sword, having both a destructive effect and a stimulating effect. When disease is prevalent, those with lower management and raising levels lose money and are eliminated; those with higher raising levels make huge profits; thus, it governs the transition between the industry's lows and highs. 1. Broiler farming; because chicken consumption declined, the recovery price of live chickens fell, reaching 7.00 yuan/Kg at the end of 2008. Farmers' enthusiasm for raising chickens was severely damaged, and coupled with disease infection, the success rate of chicken raising was greatly reduced, so most chicken farmers stopped raising chickens. This led to broiler chicks dropping to as low as 0.20 yuan/bird. Poultry meat accounts for 1/3 of total meat, and chicken accounts for an extremely large proportion. With daily meat consumption, inventory decreased and the purchase price of live chickens rebounded; moreover, raising chickens is an important way for farming households to generate income; therefore, from the beginning of the year to May, broiler farming volume gradually increased. 2. Parent stock broiler breeding; because broiler farming volume declined, broiler chick prices fell below cost; disease infection greatly reduced productivity, forcing laying hens to be culled in large numbers, and the stock of laying breeding chickens decreased, at most by 1/2 (afterward there may be a phenomenon of high broiler chick prices). Because breeding chicken farmers made relatively more money in 2006--2007, they had the ability to purchase breeding chick stock and had the adventurous spirit to pin their hopes on making money in the second half of the year and the first half of 2010. Therefore, in the first half of 2009, the proportion of chicks and growing chickens was large while the proportion of laying hens was small; this is also the reason why parent stock broiler chicks experienced a brief 10 yuan/set, quickly rebounded to 12--13 yuan/set, and were all pre-sold. 3. In the third quarter of 2009, July was the off-season for consumption, so broilers maintained a relatively low price, while entering August when students returned to school, and entering September when the Mid-Autumn and National Day double festivals approached, the demand for broilers increased, creating a situation where demand exceeded supply. The increased demand for broilers, along with the gradual fading of the financial crisis, plus the continuous rise in pork and feed prices, led broiler prices to begin warming up in August and September 2009, and broiler farming began to enter a profitable stage. 1. Broiler situation in the third quarter of 2009 Broiler prices: In the third quarter of 2009, the province-wide average purchase price of broilers was 8.3 yuan/kg, down 4% year-on-year and up 4% quarter-on-quarter. Among this, prices in July remained at around 8 yuan/kg, and from the beginning of August the broiler purchase price began to rise, with the province-wide average price reaching 8.4 yuan/kg in August and 8.5 yuan/kg in September. Chick prices: In the third quarter of 2009, the province-wide average price of broiler chicks was 1.94 yuan/bird, down 11% year-on-year and up 17% quarter-on-quarter. Among this, prices remained relatively low in July, at only 1.37 yuan/bird, and from the beginning of August broiler chick prices began to rise, reaching around 2.4 yuan/bird in late August and early September, after which prices slightly declined. Compound feed prices: In the third quarter of 2009, broiler compound feed still operated at a high level, with the province-wide average price at 2.36 yuan/kg, down 6% year-on-year and up 4% quarter-on-quarter. Broiler benefits: The broiler purchase price began to rebound slightly from August 2009, reaching 8.5 yuan/kg by September. Broilers maintained a relatively high price level, broiler production was in a profitable state, and each broiler could yield a profit of 3-4 yuan. 3. Forecast of broiler production and sales situation in the fourth quarter of 2009 Under normal circumstances, the fourth quarter is the off-season for broiler consumption. However, due to the impact of this year's drought, the rise in prices of corn and other raw materials caused feed prices to operate at a high level, increasing broiler farming costs. At the same time, pork prices were at a high level, and chicken, as the main substitute for pork, would have a fairly good market as pork prices remained high. In addition, as the economic crisis gradually recedes, broiler consumption will also gradually improve. Therefore, it is expected that broiler prices in the fourth quarter of 2009 will maintain the good momentum of the third quarter, with possible slight fluctuations during the period. 4. Recommendations Autumn is a season in which broiler farming is relatively difficult. After the weather turns cool, chicken diseases enter a high-incidence season. Farmers should follow the principle of "prevention is more important than treatment," and through control of links such as immunization procedures, vaccine selection, immunization operations, and immunization personnel, focus on doing immunization work well, so as to achieve a 100% immunization rate, 100% accuracy rate, and 100% effectiveness rate, ensuring the health level of the flock and obtaining greater economic benefits.