Analysis of the Prospects for Thin-Shell Walnut Cultivation and Per-Mu Investment Return Budget
In recent years, as walnut prices have climbed, enthusiasm for planting thin-shell walnuts has surged across the country. How profitable is this project? This has always been the question of greatest concern to growers who want to develop the walnut industry. Here, the editor provides a detailed introduction to the investment budget for planting thin-shell walnuts, their economic returns, and the market prospects:
Market prospect analysis:
The walnut is the king of the four great dried fruits. It has a long cultivation history in China and is grown throughout the country. Because of its rich nutritional value and medicinal value, it is very popular on the market, with prices rising year after year and maintaining an upward trend all along. The reason walnut prices have risen year after year is related to several major factors: First, domestic consumer market demand has expanded. As people's living standards improve, more and more consumers recognize the nutritional and medicinal value of walnuts, and consumption is on the rise. Second, the walnut processing industry is emerging. Walnut kernels can be made into food, processed into oil, and also added to other foods. These wide uses have greatly increased walnut consumption and demand. Third, international market demand has increased. Because walnuts are nutritious and good in flavor, they are very popular on the international market. Export volumes are rising year by year, and the prospects for developing the walnut industry are broad. Seedling investment budget:
The price of high-quality grafted thin-shell walnut seedlings is 10 yuan per plant. One mu of land is planted with 56 plants (plant spacing 3 m, row spacing 4 m), so the seedling cost per mu is 560 yuan. Land cost budget: For personal land (no cost); for contracted land, based on the current average land lease price in various regions, it should be 550 yuan per mu per year. Planting management budget: The labor wage for planting one mu of new-variety walnut seedlings is 100 yuan, spraying pesticides and weeding (herbicides may be used) is 200 yuan, and watering and fertilizing is 300 yuan. The three items total 600 yuan.
The total upfront investment per mu of land above is 560 yuan + 550 yuan + 600 yuan = 1,800 yuan. From the 2nd year to the 3rd year, there are no seedling costs or planting costs, and the annual investment cost is 1,140 yuan, totaling 2,280 yuan over the two years. The total investment over 3 years is 3,420 yuan.
New-variety thin-shell walnuts enter the full-production period in the 4th year, with each plant producing an average of 12 jin of dried nuts. After 5 years, each plant produces more than 20 jin of dried nuts, and the yield increases as the trees age, making the returns quite considerable. At the current market price of thin-shell walnuts (calculated at 15 yuan per jin), the 4th-year return is 10,080 yuan. After recovering the costs, the net profit is 6,666 yuan. After 5 years, the net income per mu is above ten thousand yuan.
When investing in planting walnut trees, be mentally prepared for slow returns
When investing in planting walnut trees, you still need to be mentally prepared for slow returns. Although returns begin to appear in the third year after planting, the yield is still relatively low. It can be said that walnut trees cannot be considered to be in full production before 5 or 6 years. Therefore, friends who plant on a large scale are advised to take this into account in their funding arrangements, so as to avoid problems in the capital chain before returns have appeared.
Provided there are no problems in the selection of walnut seedlings, that is, assuming that when buying seedlings you did not purchase fake seedlings from unscrupulous sellers or inferior varieties passed off as good ones, and with appropriate and reasonable post-planting management, the dried nut yield per mu of walnut trees in the full-production period should be around 600 jin. Of course, there are also a few fruit growers whose yield per plant can exceed 20 jin and whose yield per mu can exceed 800 jin, but these are not common situations and do not have much reference value.
Finally, regarding the market conditions for walnuts in a number of years, I personally do not dare to make arbitrary predictions. I only consider that people nowadays generally begin to pay attention to health preservation, and the demand for nutrition is widespread. As a product with extremely high nutritional value, walnuts and their derivative products will certainly have greater market demand in the future. It is just hard to say whether the rate of increase in this demand or the rate of increase in walnut planting area will be faster. Walnut planting is also a form of investment, and all investment carries risk. But by choosing a legitimate seedling supplier and supplementing this with scientific planting management, the walnut tree planting project is still, at present, in the ascendant and has great potential.