Laptop shipments decline in February; first quarter may drop 7%

Global shipments of the top 5 notebook (NB) brands fell about 3% in February, on par with the same period last year. As brand vendors turn conservative, an international professional institution estimates that first-quarter NB shipments will decline about 7% year on year.

DIGITIMES Research senior analyst Jian Peiping said that after January NB shipments (excluding detachable models) fell sharply from December, February NB shipments for the global top 5 brands or top 3 ODMs declined 0 to 3% month on month, in line with the trend in January to February last year.

Jian Peiping noted that the February decline mainly reflected the effect of inventory adjustment, but in March brand vendors appear to be turning conservative, casting uncertainty over the recovery in first-quarter 2014 NB shipments, with the year-on-year decline likely to reach about 7%.

Among the brand vendors, HP bucked the trend with February NB shipments growing more than 30%, the best performance, while all other brands declined from January. Asus shipments fell more than 10% in February but still held at the 1.3 million unit level (excluding the detachable T 100), widening its gap with Acer for a second consecutive month. Acer shipped about 1 million units in February, on par with Apple.

Jian Peiping said NB shipments at all ODMs also declined in February from January, with similar rates across the makers, though a more noticeable gap may emerge in March; Compal is expected to see a more significant increase as Lenovo shipments recover, while Inventec's NB shipments are relatively weak, affected by the start of the transfer of Toshiba's new-year orders.

On vendor developments, DIGITIMES Research noted that Microsoft's new chief executive is Satya Nadella, who has no experience in Windows and hardware development, and that Microsoft has already launched a low-royalty program for US$300 NBs; this can be interpreted as Microsoft's board expecting Nadella to be free from the baggage of the past and to carry out bold reforms in the Windows and hardware businesses.