Wheat prices keep rising, but quality issues make it hard to break the 1.5 yuan mark

Science Xingnong has already answered questions about this year's wheat prices many times. As far as Science Xingnong is concerned, it is still very optimistic about this year's wheat market, but although optimistic, I do not think this year's wheat price will rise too much. Generally speaking, reaching 1.4 yuan per jin would already be good, and breaking through 1.5 yuan per jin would still be very difficult.

Due to the impact of severe weather this year, a nationwide large-scale reduction in wheat production is already a foregone conclusion. However, a reduction in production does not mean there will be a large-scale price increase. The price of wheat will still be directly linked to the quality of the wheat. But due to winter frost damage, wheat in the Henan region suffering from a late spring cold snap, and continuous rain during the harvest season in some wheat-producing areas, the quality of the wheat has been seriously damaged. Because of the impact of quality, it is still somewhat difficult for this year's wheat price to rise significantly. Of course, if the wheat quality is excellent, and this year's gap in high-quality wheat is large, wheat prices could very likely rise even more, but this year's wheat quality is indeed not optimistic.

At present, wheat prices in various places are generally 1.25 yuan per jin, one mao higher than the minimum purchase price, which shows that this year's gap in new wheat is indeed very large. And with the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, the demand for flour is expanding, the gap in high-quality wheat is relatively large, and wheat prices are very likely to rise further. But I believe the increase will not be too large. Based on the current situation, reaching 1.4 yuan per jin is already the peak.

In addition, what cannot be ignored is the national grain reserve. The opening harvest price of wheat was 1.15 yuan per jin, but the state suspended the auction of old wheat under the minimum purchase price policy from June, which also created an opportunity for wheat prices to rise. At present, market supply mainly depends on new wheat.

Furthermore, the prices of chemical fertilizers and pesticides have been rising this year, and the cost of wheat planting has generally increased, which is actually one of the reasons for the rise in wheat prices. Although wheat prices have risen somewhat, the actual benefits farmers receive may not be very ideal. After all, when the water rises, the boat rises too.

In addition, there is also the rise in live pig prices. At present, the live pig market price is about 6 yuan per jin. As the main feed for live pig breeding, wheat bran will naturally also see some price increase.

However, although these factors have all led to this year's wheat price increase, wheat, as China's main grain product, has not seen large-scale changes in price for more than ten years. After all, this concerns people's livelihood, and the price increase will not be too large. There is also the existence of the national grain reserve, which cannot be ignored. In addition, although China's wheat production has been reduced on a large scale, this does not mean that international wheat will also be reduced on a large scale. The existence of high-quality imported foreign wheat is also one of the reasons why China's wheat prices will not rise significantly.

In summary, Science Xingnong believes that this year's wheat price increase will not be too large. The purchase price of high-quality wheat is expected to break through the 1.4 yuan mark, but the possibility for ordinary wheat is much smaller. Therefore, Science Xingnong believes that it will be very difficult for wheat to break through 1.5 yuan per jin this year.

The above is original content from Science Xingnong.