How will corn prices trend in July? A rebound is expected

Now that June has just begun, when looking ahead to the direction of the corn market in July, we still need to look at the current and future direction of grain reserves. The corn market has now entered a policy-driven market, and it is already certain that policy determines the market direction. The surplus grain in farmers' hands has been almost completely sold off. Therefore, the following look at the developments in July will be from the policy perspective.

Looking at market trends in previous years, the market basically enters a period of consolidation after June begins, but this year the situation is quite different. In previous years, May was a period of intensive grain reserve auctions; this year, the auction policy market began as early as April, and together with the auctions in May, the market auctioned off a total of 30 million tons.

It is reported that about one third of that amount has already been auctioned off in Northeast China, meaning that two thirds of the stock has not yet been auctioned. In addition, wheat has gradually been harvested over large areas, and wheat grain purchasing has gradually begun, so grain depots also need to free up warehouse space for wheat. That is to say, in the coming market, temporary reserve releases may continue, and market pressure will still be relatively heavy.

Considering the current situation overall, during the traditional auction gap period in June and July, the kind of upward trend seen in previous years will not appear again.

However, farmers who still have grain on hand need not be overly pessimistic, as there is also some good news for corn in the market. For example, the severe drought in Northeast China this year has led to reduced corn production, and it can be said that reduced corn production this year is already a foregone conclusion. In most areas of Jilin and Heilongjiang, corn seedlings have been delayed in fields sown with corn.

As everyone expects a reduction in corn output after autumn, the market supply of corn will also gradually tighten. Looking at the direction of the corn market, corn prices have basically entered a bottom. In July, there may still be considerable hope for a price rebound.

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