Garlic is piling up unsold across many regions and the market is in the doldrums; this year prices may have no bottom.

In the blink of an eye it is already 2018! When it comes to garlic, it is probably not only the sore spot of garlic farmers, but also the tragedy of many garlic traders who stockpiled garlic in cold storage in 2017. This year's new garlic has already begun to come onto the market from the south one after another, but there is no doubt that garlic is generally piling up unsold. At this juncture, if anyone is still optimistic about this year's garlic market, that would really be bizarre. How low can garlic prices go in the later part of this year? Science Xingnong believes that reaching a peak of 1.5-2 yuan per jin would already count as optimistic. Let us discuss the views below.

Please click to enter the image description

First, let us look at the current price of new garlic. Garlic in Lijiang, Yunnan is five mao per jin, and this price has already swept from the south to the north. Early-maturing garlic has also come onto the market one after another in northern garlic-producing areas such as Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui, with prices generally in the range of four mao to seven mao per jin, which can be said to be quite lacklustre. Although the current garlic is wet garlic, converted to dry garlic the price is no more than one yuan per jin. It can be said that the current market has already set a basic tone for this year's garlic.

Looking again at last year, when new garlic first came onto the market the price was one yuan per jin, and afterwards there was still a considerable increase, with dry garlic reaching 2.5 yuan per jin at the peak. However, after entering August, because the garlic market was saturated and demand was limited, garlic prices fell in a straight line, ultimately dropping below one yuan per jin. It can be said that the market environment of garlic supply exceeding demand had already become very obvious starting last year, yet many garlic farmers, without any awareness, still insisted on expanding garlic planting over a large area. According to statistics, the garlic area in 2018 increased rather than decreased, with expansion of around 3%. This blind expansion directly led to a severe oversupply in the garlic market.

Please click to enter the image description

Garlic is not the only thing affected by the expansion of garlic area. This year the price of garlic scapes also plummeted. Judging from the reactions of garlic farmers, affected by the weather many garlic plants failed to bolt, and the per-mu yield of garlic scapes dropped noticeably. But even so, the price of garlic scapes still could not rise, and quite a few garlic farmers even painfully threw the garlic scapes away. Now neither garlic farmers nor garlic traders hold much hope for the later market.

The expansion of garlic area has also caused severe unsold stockpiles during the concentrated period when new garlic comes onto the market. At present farmers are anxious while garlic traders press prices down, which has led to the extremely low opening garlic price this year. But even if garlic prices rebound somewhat later, fellow garlic farmers should not place too much hope in it, because after all the garlic from 2017 in cold storage has not yet been fully sold. The current situation of severe oversupply in garlic is already settled.

This is Science Xingnong. You are welcome to follow for more information.