In 2018, garlic suffered a large-scale unsalable surplus. When is the right time to sell garlic?

First, let one thing be clear: given this year's severe oversupply, garlic farmers will face the risk of loss no matter when they sell. For farmers who have gradually begun storing garlic, the immediate priority is to protect the garlic well, strive to be more competitive once the garlic hits the market, and sell at the right time to get a good price and reduce losses.

For farmers, they must not only consider planting layout and calculate input costs, but also be shrewd and calculating when it comes to buying and selling. As for the current garlic market, a broad decline has already set in, and garlic prices continue to fall, even reaching an ultra-low price of five mao per jin. At present, new garlic has already hit the market in southern regions such as Yunnan and Guizhou, while in the north, new garlic in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places is also about to face large-scale market entry, putting further pressure on the current garlic market. It can be said that under the current garlic situation, losses are already unavoidable.

After two consecutive years of favorable garlic market conditions in 2016 and 2017, many farmers could not resist the temptation and weakened their awareness of planting risks. Blind expansion was the fundamental reason for the large-scale unsalable surplus of garlic this year. For some large garlic growers, the investment cost alone reached 3000 yuan per mu. Excluding labor and management costs, only a price of 2 yuan per jin would allow them to avoid losses under the current market conditions. Obviously, under the current market conditions, that price is really nothing but a hope.

As for this year's large-scale unsalable garlic surplus, clues could also be seen from the garlic market in July and August 2017. At that time, garlic prices began to fall continuously after entering July, and after entering August they fell at an even faster pace. From there, things went from bad to worse, falling directly to the current market situation. During that decline, many garlic traders had already realized that the market had excess garlic and, facing difficult sales, began gradually driving prices down. With no growth in garlic exports or domestic sales, this directly led to comprehensive losses for garlic traders who had participated in cold-storage garlic stockpiling last year. Even now, many garlic traders still have not managed to sell their garlic. The current gradual increase in new garlic supply has also directly affected the mindset of many garlic traders and garlic farmers. For current garlic traders, their mindset may seem somewhat impatient, and a lack of confidence in this year's market has led to the current low prices.

At present, new garlic has only just come onto the market, and with old and new garlic fully entering the market and causing severe oversupply, Science Xingnong believes that garlic farmers can appropriately wait and see and do not need to be so impatient. If, after entering July and August, the old and new garlic markets have been somewhat digested, and garlic traders have expectations for next year's market and actively participate in stockpiling garlic, perhaps garlic prices may improve by then. After all, the current garlic price is already low enough.

This article is originally created by Science Xingnong. Welcome to follow and learn together.