In the summer of 2017, pig prices are highly likely to keep rising
The national live pig market's average price for crossbred pigs (Duroc x Landrace x Yorkshire) was 18.16 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from yesterday.
Today, crossbred pig prices rose in 14 provinces and fell in 12 provinces. 21 provinces exceeded 9 yuan/jin, with the highest being Zhejiang province at 19.10 yuan/kg. Corn price 1741 yuan/tonne, soybean meal price 3553 yuan/tonne, down 3 yuan/tonne from yesterday.
Pig prices in some provinces and cities: Guangdong 17.72 yuan/kg, Shandong 18.37 yuan/kg, Henan 18.22 yuan/kg, Jiangxi 18.20 yuan/kg, Hebei 18.39 yuan/kg, Jiangsu 18.45 yuan/kg, Hunan 18.11 yuan/kg, Fujian 18.20 yuan/kg, Liaoning 17.66 yuan/kg, Sichuan 18.61 yuan/kg, Zhejiang 18.89 yuan/kg, Chongqing 18.58 yuan/kg, Guizhou 19.10 yuan/kg.
The live pig market performed well in 2016, so everyone was full of hope for 2017. Moreover, some farmers missed out this year, so they planned for next year. Risk and opportunity coexist, and only by finding a farming method that suits you can you make money. The live pig output in 2017 will be 590 million head. In 2015, output was 708 million head, leaving a shortfall of more than 100 million head. This shortage will clearly support strong Chinese pig prices next year, while stimulating North America and Europe to continue exporting large quantities of pork. So from these figures it is not hard to see that pig farming in 2017 is still viewed favourably, and there is still a certain profit to be made. In 2017 China's live pig shortfall is huge, pig farming is sure to still make money, pig farmers should seize the opportunity. If you want to make money from pig farming, you can take a careful look at the analysis below.
1. Expand production and plan your layout according to your own actual capacity
In 2017 everyone should expand production and plan their layout according to their own actual capacity. For ordinary small pig farms and rural backyard raisers, whatever they can do, whether following the crowd or going it alone, they may not be able to catch the good times, yet when losses come they suffer the worst losses; even if they compete for a share of the pie, they are bound to be the ones who profit least. For large pig farms, with high feeding and management standards, lower farming costs and better risk resistance, they also have a basis for taking a gamble.
2. Always stay cautious
In the summer of 2017 the probability of pig prices maintaining an upward trend is high, but farmers must also consider the current cost of restocking piglets; if the restocking cost is too high, they must be cautious. In addition, the risk of epidemic disease in winter farming is high, and conditions such as diarrhoea and foot-and-mouth disease are prone to occur, so epidemic prevention and control must be done well. Farmers should recognise the situation and adjust their mindset. Sell when prices are high, sell the large and keep the small, and make long-term plans.
3. The pig cycle has already been broken
The “pig cycle” has indeed begun to change shape, and a lengthened duration has become the primary feature of the change in the “pig cycle”; the previous pig cycle lasted 59 months, noticeably longer than the earlier 36-month cycle. This round of the “pig cycle” has notable structural features in restocking: large-scale operations and major farming groups are actively expanding their restocking, medium-sized farmers are restocking rationally and slowly, and small and backyard raisers are exiting due to environmental protection pressure.
It is expected that pig prices in 2017 will reach a relative low point in the second half of 2018, and under optimistic circumstances pig prices will enter an upward range again in 2019.