What Will Farmers in Ju'nan Plant Next Year? Analysis of the 2017 Planting Intention Survey
From December 13 to 14, 2016, cost survey staff from the County Price Bureau visited agricultural survey households and conducted a 2017 grain planting intention survey of 9 survey households in three townships: Xiji West Village, Yanbin Town; Zuohuatang Village, Daokou Town; and Pomu Village, Fangqian Town. The survey results show: in 2017, the average sown area per household is expected to decrease slightly, wheat and corn sown areas will increase slightly while remaining stable, and soybean, potato and peanut sown areas will decrease.
I. Basic Situation of Farmers' Planting Intentions in 2017
The average sown area per household in 2017 is expected to be 7.5 mu, a decrease of 0.21 mu, or 2.72%, compared with the average actual sown area per household of 7.71 mu in 2016. Among these:
The average wheat planting area per household in 2017 is expected to be 3.01 mu, an increase of 2.73% over the actual planting area of 2.93 mu in 2016;
The average corn planting area per household is expected to be 3.01 mu, an increase of 12.31% over the actual area of 2.68 mu in 2016;
None of the 9 surveyed households planned to plant soybeans or potatoes.
Influenced by geography and planting habits, the county's oil crops are mainly peanuts. In 2017, the average oil crop planting area per household is expected to be 1.48 mu, a decrease of 19.13% compared with the actual planting area in 2016.
II. Analysis of the Reasons for Changes in Farmers' Planting Structure in 2017
The survey results show that farmers' planting structure will be adjusted somewhat in 2017. The sown areas of wheat and corn are expected to increase slightly, soybean and potato planting areas will decrease greatly, and oil crop sown area will decrease slightly. This is mainly affected by various factors such as the price trends of various crops, comparative benefits and planting habits.
Since 2016, wheat prices have remained stable, and farmers expect wheat prices to rise later. Soil moisture was good during this year's winter wheat sowing, and enthusiasm for wheat planting is high. Although corn prices are sluggish, corn yield per mu increased greatly this year and production costs fell slightly, so the actual income from corn planting was basically comparable to previous years. Because traditional planting habits are difficult to change for the time being, most farmers in our county follow the practice of “planting corn after harvesting wheat,” and corn planting area and wheat planting area maintain synchronous growth.
Affected by high summer temperatures and abundant rain, soybean production fell severely this year, and some farmers even had a total loss of soybeans. Combined with low soybean prices and small amounts used for household consumption, the surveyed farmers all said they would not plant soybeans next year.
Affected by comprehensive environmental governance and other factors, most backyard raisers in our county reduced their breeding scale or even withdrew from the pig farming industry, and the potato planting area used as feed for raising pigs also declined greatly.
In recent years, peanut prices have been neither high nor low, remaining stable at around 4 yuan this year. Farmers mostly plant peanuts first to meet their own oil-pressing needs, and many households have stocks at home, so peanut planting is expected to decrease slightly next year.
III. Problems and Suggestions
The main problems are:
Prices of agricultural products are low and change quickly, price trends are difficult to grasp and predict, farmers lack market information, farmers' response to the market lags, labor is short, scientific farming techniques are lacking, the planting structure is single, and the ability to withstand natural disasters is relatively weak.
In adjusting their planting structure, most farmers still follow the pattern of “planting whatever others plant” and “planting this year whatever was planted last year,” lacking technology and information on variety selection, cultivation and management.
Another issue is that socialized services cannot keep up, especially in specialty planting, where there is a lack of leadership from leading enterprises, which affects farmers' enthusiasm for adjusting the planting structure.
Suggestions:
1. Raise the purchase price of wheat and other grains, increase subsidies for farmers planting wheat, enable farmers to benefit from grain planting, protect farmers' enthusiasm for grain planting, and stabilize grain planting area and output.
2. Strengthen scientific and technological training and improve production levels. On the one hand, increase scientific and technological training, raise farmers' scientific and technological level, advance agricultural technological progress, accelerate the promotion of applicable technologies, cultivate improved varieties, promote good methods, and increase per-unit yield and quality. On the other hand, take marketization as the guide, guide farmers to shift toward diversified varieties, high-quality products and a diversified structure, and promote invigorating agriculture through science and technology.
3. Strengthen guidance through agricultural situation information. Help farmers promptly understand and grasp information such as supply, demand and prices of major agricultural and sideline products, and reduce market risks. Correctly guide farmers to adjust their structure according to market demand, and guide farmers to plant, as far as possible, agricultural and sideline products with large demand, low risk and high returns so as to increase farmers' income.
4. Further stabilize the prices of agricultural inputs and effectively stabilize the production costs of agricultural products. Rising prices of agricultural inputs have raised agricultural production costs, offset the central government's preferential policies and dampened farmers' enthusiasm for farming. Therefore, the government should continue to adopt corresponding macro-control measures, strengthen the management of the agricultural input market, and ensure that the prices of agricultural inputs remain stable at the current level.
5. Strengthen agricultural and rural infrastructure construction, especially the construction of water conservancy facilities for basic farmland, and improve farmers' ability to withstand natural disasters.