Eggplant 2016 Market Analysis and 2017 Market Trend Forecast
Eggplant is an important vegetable in the daily consumption of Chinese residents. In 2015, China's eggplant planting area was 12.09 million mu, with a yield of 30.68 million tons, accounting for 3.7% and 3.9% of the total vegetable planting area and total output, respectively. Eggplant cultivation in China is widely distributed, with Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other provinces as the main producing areas. Under natural conditions, northern China can only plant during the frost-free period, while frost-free areas south of the Yangtze River can plant in all four seasons. With the development of protected production, China's eggplant has achieved year-round supply, and production can be roughly divided into two cropping periods: winter-spring and autumn-winter. The former is usually sown in October-November and comes to market in April; the latter is usually sown in June and comes to market in October. In 2016, China's eggplant planting area expanded year-on-year. Affected by the cold wave at the beginning of the year, continuous rainfall in summer, and haze and other weather conditions, the yield per unit area declined slightly, total output grew slightly, consumption was relatively stable, and prices rose significantly year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2009. It is expected that in 2017, the eggplant planting area will continue to grow, the yield per unit area will increase slightly, total output will further increase, consumption will increase steadily, and prices will decline steadily year-on-year. Producers are advised to pay close attention to weather changes to prevent major losses caused by severe cold and freezing damage; and to effectively strengthen field management to avoid serious impacts on production caused by pests and diseases.
I. Analysis of Market Supply and Demand Situation in 2016
(1) Yield per unit area declined slightly, total output grew slightly
Affected by cold wave weather, at the beginning of 2016, large areas of northern and southern China experienced temperature drops, and many southern provinces saw rain and snow, causing adverse effects on eggplant growth, with relatively large losses in open-field production in Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan and other places. Continuous rainfall in the Yangtze River basin in summer caused certain losses in the corresponding areas. Typhoons and haze weather also affected eggplant production in some areas. According to estimates, in 2016 China's eggplant yield per unit area declined slightly, with an average yield of 2,498 kg per mu, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%.
In recent years, China's eggplant planting scale has generally maintained growth, with the planting area increasing from 11.24 million mu in 2010 to 12.09 million mu in 2015, an average annual growth of 1.5%. With the continuous advancement of China's agricultural supply-side structural reform, the effects of agricultural destocking, cost reduction, and strengthening weak links have begun to appear. The price formation mechanism for corn and other crops has gradually been rationalized, and the comparative benefits of planting vegetables such as eggplant have become more prominent, further driving the expansion of planting areas in some regions. In 2016, China's eggplant planting continued its growth trend, with an estimated planting area of 12.71 million mu, an increase of 5.1%. Affected by the expanded area and reduced yield per unit area, the total output of eggplant in 2016 increased by 3.4%, reaching 31.73 million tons.
Eggplant Planting Area, Output and Yield per Unit Area, 2010-2015
(2) Consumer demand remained relatively stable, with relatively large losses
As a common vegetable, eggplant has always been an important vegetable variety in the daily consumption of Chinese urban and rural residents, and consumer demand has been relatively stable. With the continuous improvement of income levels and the ongoing adjustment of dietary structure, overall consumer demand for eggplant has shown a slight upward trend. In 2016, China's eggplant consumption reached 24.43 million tons. Because it is prone to spoilage during picking, sorting, transportation and trading, eggplant losses are relatively large. It is estimated that in 2016, eggplant losses amounted to 7.30 million tons, accounting for about 23.0% of total output. In addition, in 2016, China's total eggplant imports and exports were about 7,000 tons, accounting for about 0.02% of total output, a very limited proportion.
(3) Prices rose significantly year-on-year, with intra-year fluctuations strengthening
Affected by the seasonal patterns of planting and market arrival, eggplant prices within the year generally show a “V”-shaped fluctuation. At the beginning of 2016, eggplant prices rose sharply, driving the overall price level up significantly. The annual average wholesale price reached 3.85 yuan per kg, the highest since 2009, up 7.0% year-on-year. In 2016, the range between monthly eggplant prices within the year reached 5.1 yuan per kg, and the standard deviation reached 1.7 yuan per kg, both the highest in the past 5 years, indicating strengthened fluctuations.
From the monthly trend in 2016: affected by cold wave weather, the year-on-year increase in eggplant wholesale prices from January to March was above 10%. In February, the wholesale price exceeded 7 yuan per kg, reaching the highest peak since 2009, and in March the year-on-year price increase reached 36.7%. From April to August, as temperatures warmed, eggplant market supply increased significantly, market prices fell rapidly, and all showed year-on-year declines. In June, the year-on-year price decline was the largest, reaching 15.8%. After September-November, as the weather turned colder, open-field production decreased, and some northern producing areas shifted to protected production. Eggplant supply gradually decreased, and prices turned to rise, continuing to increase year-on-year.
II. Expected Market Trend in 2017
(1) Total output will continue to increase, with a relatively large increase in output at the beginning of the year
As of December, autumn-winter eggplant had already come to market and supply generally can continue until before the Spring Festival, while some protected-cultivation eggplant can continue to be marketed until June. According to data from information monitoring points in 580 key vegetable-producing counties, in November 2016 the area of eggplant in the field was 26,000 mu, up 2.3% year-on-year, at a relatively high level in the past 5 years. If meteorological conditions are favorable, it is expected that at the beginning of 2017 eggplant output will increase by 5-10% year-on-year, a relatively large increase compared with the same period in previous years. Because eggplant prices remained low in the summer of 2016, the planting returns for winter-spring eggplant that year declined, affecting the willingness to plant winter-spring eggplant in 2017. It is expected that after May, the eggplant planting area and output will be flat or slightly reduced year-on-year. Overall, in 2017 total eggplant output will increase slightly by 2.5%, and is expected to reach 32.52 million tons.
(2) Consumption will increase steadily, while losses will decline slightly
The slow growth of population size, the continued advancement of urbanization, and the continuous improvement of residents' income levels have a positive effect on the growth of eggplant consumption. In recent years, urban and rural residents' awareness of health and wellness has continued to increase, and food consumption has begun to shift from “eating well” to “eating healthily.” The nutritional and medicinal value of eggplant, such as lowering blood pressure, lowering cholesterol, and anti-aging, has increasingly attracted attention, which will further promote stable growth in consumer demand. It is expected that in 2017, the eggplant consumption of Chinese urban and rural residents will reach 25.25 million tons, an increase of 3.3%. With the construction of vegetable storage and preservation facilities and the improvement of transportation and logistics conditions, the eggplant loss rate will also gradually decline. It is expected that in 2017 eggplant losses will decrease to 7.27 million tons, about 30,000 tons less than in 2016, and the proportion of losses in total output will decrease by 0.7 percentage points.
(3) Annual prices will decline steadily year-on-year, with prices from January to April possibly falling significantly year-on-year
In 2017, eggplant production supply will generally increase slightly, and consumer demand will increase steadily. It is expected that the annual average wholesale price will generally decline steadily, remaining between 3.5-3.8 yuan per kg. Intra-year price fluctuations will still maintain a “V”-shaped pattern. Because the 2017 Spring Festival is earlier than in previous years, the peak eggplant price may advance to January.
Considering that the year-on-year growth in eggplant production supply at the beginning of 2017 will be relatively obvious, it is expected that from January to April 2017 eggplant prices will fall significantly year-on-year, with the decline possibly exceeding 10%; after autumn-winter eggplant basically exits the market in May, eggplant production supply will be flat or slightly reduced year-on-year, and prices are expected to be basically the same as the same period in 2016. Because the price decline at the beginning of the year is relatively obvious, it is expected that the range of monthly price fluctuations for eggplant in 2017 will narrow somewhat.
III. Production and Operation Recommendations
First, pay close attention to weather changes to prevent major losses caused by severe cold and freezing damage. Low-temperature freezing damage has a major impact on eggplant cultivation. It may not only cause a sharp reduction in output, but may also delay the time to market, disrupt the market supply rhythm, and cause drastic price fluctuations. In 2016, because preparations were inadequate and there was no time to respond, cold wave weather brought serious losses to eggplant production in many places. According to monitoring by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, in July 2016 sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rapidly reversed, entering a La Niña state, and may have developed into a La Niña event, greatly increasing the probability of a cold winter in China around the end of the year and beginning of the next. It is recommended to pay close attention to winter and spring weather changes, repair and maintain production facilities in advance, make good reserves of cold-protection materials such as cold-proof film and straw mats, and in case of rain, snow and freezing weather, promptly spray pesticides to prevent disease, supplement light and increase temperature, and avoid serious losses caused by low-temperature freezing damage.
Second, effectively strengthen field management and scientifically prevent common pests and diseases. Eggplant cultivation is prone to pests and diseases, and field management is crucial to output levels. In recent years, pests and diseases such as Phytophthora blight, Verticillium wilt, gray mold, whitefly, aphids, and red spiders have occurred from time to time, often with characteristics such as rapid development and obvious losses, causing adverse effects on production. It is recommended that producers effectively strengthen field management during cultivation, actively implement crop rotation in long-term planting plots, promptly disinfect seeds and seedbeds before planting, use rootstock grafting for seedling cultivation, apply sufficient base fertilizer, topdress in a timely manner, pay attention to drainage, promptly clean up weeds and fallen leaves, and add insect-proof nets to reduce insect sources. When pests and diseases occur, apply the right medicine, use pesticides scientifically, and apply them precisely to avoid relatively large losses caused by pests and diseases.