2019 peanut price forecast is bullish, what factors are at play?
Peanut prices were not ideal in the previous two years. In the past two years, due to weather problems, peanut production and quality have been affected considerably. Especially when winter set in, prices kept sliding, and one careless move could mean a loss. 2018 is about to end. So how will peanut prices be in 2019? Let us take a look below at the 2019 peanut price forecast, for everyone's reference.
I. 2019 peanut price forecast
1. Although peanut prices kept sliding, the national peanut price has still remained steady. It will not swing wildly up and down. Recently, the selling mentality of some farmers in Shandong and Anhui has loosened slightly, but since market demand still shows no favorable signs, traders in producing areas are generally cautious in purchasing. The demand side is mainly for oil-grade peanuts. Most are taken to be pressed into peanut oil.
2. Because supply is large and stocks are sufficient, demand is low; buyers purchase according to need, and few are asking for goods. Prices are steady, but sales volume is truly low. In some places prices have been lowered in order to seek sales.
3. At present, the refineries have consumed about as much as they can, so demand has grown, and it looks like sales have improved quite a bit. But it is still by quality, not by quantity. Only peanuts that pass quality standards can be sold, and transaction prices are basically stabilizing.
In summary: the peanut price trend is showing slight stabilization, but Dingtao Luhua, Xinyi Luhua, Xiangyang Luhua and others still have relatively large volumes of goods, and there is still some pressure in unloading. The new contract volume of Kerry Group is limited, and in the short term it maintains limited unloading. Overall, there are no favorable signs for oil mills at present. In sales areas, shipments are slowing as Qingming approaches, mainly because some downstream traders have returned home early to pay respects to their ancestors and are waiting to see how purchasing recovers after the holiday. Although some producing areas show moderate enthusiasm for selling, demand has no strong support. This website believes that in the short term, peanut price fluctuations may slow, and if there is an opportunity to sell, it can be appropriately seized.
However, in the long run, growing peanuts still has prospects. Peanuts processed into nut-type foods are becoming more and more popular. Peanut oil is also essential. A certain amount of peanuts is needed every year, and market demand is indispensable. During New Year's Day, the Spring Festival, and spring in 2019, peanut prices may be expected to rise.
II. Factors affecting peanut prices
1. Yield of the planting area
The planting area is directly proportional to yield. The more you plant, the more you harvest, the larger the supply, and the lower the price. Because peanut prices in 2017 and 2018 were not ideal, many switched to growing other crops, leading to a large drop in this year's output.
2. Quality of peanuts
Peanut quality is also related to weather. In the past two years, summer rainfall increased, causing most peanuts to die from waterlogging, thus reducing output and quantity and lowering peanut quality. Poor quality naturally means the price is not high either.
3. Inventory situation of old-crop peanuts
Peanuts can be stored for a very long time. They do not have to be fresh. If there are still old-crop peanuts from previous years in inventory, they can still be sold this year.
4. Current market demand
In summary, peanut prices will continue to rise, but the extent of the increase is not very large. It is impossible for them to break 4 yuan per jin.
Alright, the above is the 2019 peanut price forecast brought to you by the Tuliu.com editor. We hope it is helpful to everyone. And we wish everyone can sell the peanuts they grow for a good price.