2019 Wheat Prices: Weakened Demand Boost Leaves Policy Adjustments to Sway the Market
Wheat is one of the three major grains widely cultivated around the world, and almost all of it is used as food, with only a small portion used as feed. So under normal conditions, how much wheat is produced per mu? What was the price per jin in 2019?
How much was wheat per jin in 2019
1. According to Tuliu.com——Fruit and VegetableMarket Channel, the current opening price of wheat in the Henan region is 2420 yuan, the latest is 2421 yuan, up 2 yuan, with a high of 2435 yuan, a low of 2420 yuan, and a previous settlement price of 2427 yuan.
2. In the Chongqing region, the average factory-gate price of medium white wheat in 2018 was 2530 yuan/ton; in the Sichuan region, the average factory-gate price of medium mixed wheat produced in Henan and Anhui was 2540 yuan/ton.
3. In the Fengtai area of Anhui, the small vessel delivery price of third-grade white wheat in 2018 was 2380 yuan/ton; in the Guoyang area, the ex-warehouse price of first-grade white wheat in 2018 was 2360 yuan/ton, and the ex-warehouse price of second-grade red wheat was 2240 yuan/ton.
Weakened Boost Effect from Terminal Demand
According to statistics, since 2018, the cumulative volume of state temporary reserve wheat put on the market reached 55.434531 million tons, with a transaction volume of 6.303218 million tons, down 1.065168 million tons year on year. As of late October, the remaining state temporary reserve wheat inventory (including wheat produced in 2018) was 75.54 million tons, down 5.46 million tons year on year, of which more than 66 million tons was in Jiangsu, Anhui and Henan, accounting for 87%.
Under the combined influence of strict domestic food safety requirements, slow growth in flour output and uneven wheat quality, the procurement demand of flour processing enterprises has had a limited boosting effect on wheat prices. Although state temporary reserve wheat has maintained high weekly auction volumes, transaction volumes have not been high, and transactions have clearly diverged between regions, which to a certain extent reflects the structural contradictions in the domestic wheat market.
Policy Adjustments Affect Supply Changes
It is expected that the intensity of domestic policy adjustments later on will directly affect the direction of wheat prices, especially the state temporary reserve wheat auction policy. The mismatch between supply and demand means that the market purchase and sale of wheat by quality will continue to diverge, and the price gap between high-quality wheat and poor-quality wheat will remain high.
Because the domestic flour market demand in recent years has been “brisk in season but not prosperous”, and the holiday boosting effect has weakened, with sufficient wheat supply in the circulation market and state temporary reserve wheat maintaining high weekly auction volumes, domestic wheat prices have fluctuated within a narrow range around the procurement cost of state temporary reserve wheat, which may make it difficult to absorb the increase in inventory costs through price fluctuations. It is recommended that grain-holding entities lower their psychological price expectations and reasonably arrange sales plans according to the quality and quantity of their own wheat inventories.