What is the market price of cotton per jin?
Cotton is one of the important cash crops in our country, widely cultivated throughout the country, from Guangdong in the south to Xinjiang in the west, and it has replaced tree cotton and herbaceous cotton. In 2016, China's cotton planting area was 3,433 thousand hectares, with a total output of 5.2 million tons and a yield of 1,514 kg per hectare, ranking first in the world in cotton output. So how much does this crop known as white gold cost per jin on the market, and what about its supply and demand situation?
I. The market price of cotton
The price of cotton is mainly determined by its place of origin and quality. This year cotton has shown an overall downward trend. In August, the average domestic ginned cotton price was 13,492.55 yuan/ton, down 4.71% month-on-month and down 16.70% year-on-year. Based on the current ginned cotton price, the price of hand-picked seed cotton is about 5.2-5.7 yuan/kg, and the price of machine-picked seed cotton is about 4.5-4.8 yuan/kg. At present, the national commercial cotton inventory is at a historical high, while cotton in some regions is about to come onto the market in large quantities, and cotton on the market is clearly in oversupply.
II. The supply and demand situation of cotton
There are 72 countries in the world that produce cotton, distributed across Asia, Africa, America, Europe and Oceania. Our country is the world's most important cotton importer, and the United States is the world's third-largest cotton producer and largest cotton exporter. In 2018/19, U.S. cotton output was expected to be 4.05 million tons, with exports of 3.27 million tons, and the volume of cotton exports accounted for about 36% of total global cotton exports.
In recent years, due to the sluggish domestic cotton textile industry, continuously rising planting costs for cotton farmers, and weak cotton prices, our country's cotton planting area has continued to shrink. In 2019/20, our country's total output is expected to be 6.042 million tons; consumption is expected to be 8.709 million tons, a month-on-month reduction of 109,000 tons; imports are expected to be 2.286 million tons, with no adjustment; and ending stocks are 7.34 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 156,000 tons.
According to a survey by the China Cotton Association, as of the end of May, the national cotton industrial inventory was 750,000 tons, commercial inventory was 3.53 million tons, and reserve cotton transactions were 350,000 tons, putting supply overall at a comfortable level. The prosperity level of the textile industry has fallen to a relatively low level. If there are favorable developments in China-U.S. economic and trade consultations, cotton demand is expected to rebound. Short-term domestic cotton prices are expected to remain at a low level.