Analysis of the 2019 Garlic Market Price Trend
After the garlic price upcycle of the previous two years, this year's garlic market can be said to have been unfavorable throughout, with a very obvious downward price trend. It is reported that in the first half of this year, the purchase price of garlic even fell to a low of 0.3-0.5 yuan, and basically many farmers were selling at a loss. So what will happen to the garlic market next? Will it rise?
1. Garlic Market Dynamics
Recent garlic market trading has mainly revolved around peeled garlic cloves and mixed-grade supply. Prices in the main garlic-producing areas of Jinxiang, Qixian, Zhongmu and Pizhou have fluctuated only slightly. At this stage, the supply of in-store goods still meets current demand; among small-tonnage new garlic and old garlic there are some willing sellers, but demand is very limited, and some eager sellers have already begun offering price concessions on their own initiative. Transaction volume has increased somewhat, but transaction prices show a certain weakness.
The following are the mainstream market transaction prices:
Outside storage:
Garlic for peeled cloves: 2.30-2.40 yuan/jin.
Ordinary mixed grade: 2.40-2.50 yuan/jin.
Medium mixed grade: 2.55-2.65 yuan/jin.
Large mixed grade: 2.70-3.10 yuan/jin.
Small six: 3.10-3.30 yuan/jin.
Garlic core: 1.20-1.38 yuan/jin.
In storage:
Ordinary mixed grade: 2.95-3.05 yuan/jin.
Large mixed grade: 3.15-3.35 yuan/jin.
4.5 grade garlic: 2.95-3.05 yuan/jin.
5.0 grade garlic: 3.10-3.30 yuan/jin.
5.5 grade garlic: 3.40-3.50 yuan/jin.
6.0 grade garlic: 3.70-3.90 yuan/jin.
Old garlic: 1.70-2.00 yuan/jin.
2. Garlic Market Forecast
Because market information does not flow smoothly, many farmer friends can only use the price over a certain period as a reference when planting garlic, which involves a great deal of lag. As the overall garlic price trend in previous years was favorable, many farmer friends expanded their garlic planting area, causing garlic stocks to increase very quickly in recent years, even reaching historic highs. In addition, export volume has fallen both month-on-month and year-on-year, and the market is very weak.
Judging from the current situation, it is very difficult for garlic prices to rise; they can only fall further, and prices will not rise until the market begins to recover and the stored garlic inventory is sold down to the bottom. As garlic prices decline, many farmers will reduce their garlic planting, and as supply decreases, garlic prices should show an upward trend the year after next.