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Industry Viewpoint: Short-Term Corn Prices Will Run Weak
Industry data monitoring shows that since mid-July, corn prices in North China had already seen a slight decline. Entering August, prices fell off a cliff, and the subsequent short-term rebound did not last long. The industry calls this a "continuous plunge" in corn prices, and the corn price-cutting storm is sweeping across the country. Corn
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New rice price trend may depend on policy
New rice price trend may depend on policy Currently, temperatures in southern sales regions are also relatively high, and with more precipitation in the south this year, the storage environment is not conducive to stockpiling large quantities of rice. In addition, the phenomenon of strong rice [paddy] and weak milled rice has made the market pessimistic about milled rice price trends, and processing enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing and processing is low.
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Wheat prices may remain fluctuating around the floor purchase price for an extended period
Wheat prices may remain fluctuating around the floor purchase price for an extended period. Last week, new wheat began to come onto the market, and Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei launched floor purchase. The old wheat market saw light buying and selling, and wheat prices continued to run weakly; flour prices in production areas were stable, while bran prices were stable with a slight decline. At present, domestic policy grain source inventories are high, and insufficient demand from grain-using enterprises plus too-high auction reserve prices have led to slow digestion of policy inventories, making regional warehouse capacity conflicts prominent. This will directly affect the floor purchase intensity for wheat in major production areas, greatly reducing the squeezing effect on circulating grain sources in the wheat market, and the price-lifting effect of policy purchases on wheat prices may be significantly lengthened by the purchase cycle, causing wheat prices to run around the floor purchase price for a relatively long time.</p> <p> <strong>US soybean futures prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward</strong> Last week, the port distribution price of imported soybeans continued to fall. Affected by the decline in international soybean prices, the cost of imported soybeans decreased, while demand for downstream products such as soybean meal and soybean oil did not recover noticeably, so the port distribution price of imported soybeans continued weak. The aftereffects of a global soybean bumper crop remain, US soybean planting progress is stable, and El Nino weather is also favorable for US soybean growth, making weather speculation difficult for the time being. The recent sharp rise in the US dollar exchange rate has also put downward pressure on CBOT soybean futures prices, and CBOT soybean futures prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward.</p> <p> </p>
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Japonica rice market prices are expected to run steadily
Japonica rice market prices will run steadily. Affected by gradually rising temperatures and the plum rain season in the south, terminal consumer demand in the rice market has declined somewhat, and off-season characteristics are clearly evident, so processing enterprises will see even slower sales progress. Under the influence of regulatory policies, ample supply, and relatively stable demand, the domestic japonica rice market will show a steady trend, with little possibility of large fluctuations.
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June Domestic Rice Market Review and Outlook
Since June, the domestic rice market has been generally relatively stable overall, with slight fluctuations in some areas. At the same time, japonica rice auctions continued to see low transaction rates. Meanwhile, demand in the domestic rice market entered the off-season for consumption. In addition, the volume of imported rice climbed sharply. The detailed analysis is as follows:
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High-quality wheat prices are rising rapidly, and here is how the industry sees it
High-quality wheat prices are rising rapidly. In recent times, prices of high-quality strong-gluten wheat have risen rapidly across various regions, and the market for buying and selling high-quality and ordinary wheat can be described as a tale of two extremes. The reason is that some traders believe that, based on last year's experience, high-quality wheat will still have a relatively good market this year, and they have entered the market one after another to snap up supplies, with the mentality of hoarding high-quality wheat continuously strengthening. On the market-support purchase front, as market-support purchases in various regions gradually get into gear, the purchase pace is expected to accelerate, and purchase volumes will gradually expand. Supported by this, prices of new ordinary wheat will rise slightly while remaining stable, but the room for increase will be limited.
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Corn auction transaction rate continues to decline, how does the industry view it?
Corn auction transaction rate continues to decline. Last week, corn purchase and sales in Northeast China were sluggish, and the temporary storage transaction volume hit a new low again; corn prices in North China rose slightly within a stable range; corn prices at southern ports were stable and slightly weak, while purchase prices at northern ports fell, marking the beginning of the destocking stage. At present,
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Corn prices in the second quarter generally trended weak, industry views and analysis
Corn prices generally trended weak in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the domestic corn market fully entered the temporary storage "auction season," and its overall price trend was slightly weak. At the same time, compared with last year, the "destocking" progress of temporary storage corn was slow, market demand lacked highlights, and the market confidence index declined in tandem. In the international market, bullish and bearish factors coexisted, prices first fell and then rose, and the price spread with domestic corn continued to widen. Looking ahead, as the domestic corn market enters the lean season, discussion has reappeared about whether corn prices can repeat last year's glory. However, the oversupply situation in the domestic corn market remains difficult to reverse, and it will not be easy for China's corn market to say "rise" this summer.
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After New Early Rice Hits the Market, Purchasing Turns Cautious: Industry Views and Analysis
New Early Rice Hits the Market, Purchasing Shows Caution. At present, the new-season early indica rice in the south has fully hit the market, and the purchase price of 2015-produced national standard third-grade early indica rice is currently below the 2015 domestic minimum protective price for early indica rice. Purchasing entities are mainly grain depots, while small and medium-sized processing enterprises, due to the rather serious "strong rice, weak milled rice" phenomenon, are relatively cautious about entering the market to purchase, generally focusing on purchasing high-quality early indica rice, mainly to meet their own processing volume before the new-season middle indica rice hits the market. As new-season early indica rice hits the market and new-season middle indica rice is about to hit the market, the already loose supply of raw grain in the market becomes even looser, and with various entities busy purchasing new grain, the auction market transactions appear somewhat sluggish.
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Corn prices remain stable but weak, industry views and interpretation
Corn prices remain stable but weak. Entering July, from the perspective of the large domestic corn market, short-term market supply is sufficient, downstream demand remains weak, temporary storage auctions continue to be sluggish, the north-south port price inversion is severe, and corn substitutes continue to capture ports and sales area markets.
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